By Michael Every of Rabobank
Welcome to the ‘peacefire’. After Israel and Iran were pulled back from the brink of new war by Trump on Monday, Wednesday morning Asia time saw him then strike Iran, and it fire at US bases in the Gulf, in response to Tehran downing a US Apache helicopter. It appears the US hit radar and missile/drone facilities around and in the Strait of Hormuz while Iran didn’t hit anything due to its missiles being intercepted.
It seems both sides can now attack each other on a limited/proportional scale under a ‘ceasefire’ while peace negotiations continue… which Trump says are now in the “final throes”, and cynics point out such finality is always thrown further into the future.
The latest suggestion there is that Iran may dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile rather than destroying or handing it over, which would be a serious US climbdown if so; that’s as Trump elsewhere mused that he might set up a Marshall Plan for Iran – but would want half their oil in return.
Yet allowing Iran to keep its nuclear potential is not going to be acceptable to Israel, meaning no long-term peace in the region whatever the US decides. Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Hezbollah, so far to no promised retaliation from Iran. As noted yesterday, that points to Iran’s failure to link Lebanon to its own conflict and to force Israel to stop hitting its proxy there. It goes without saying that the latest US strikes against it further underline that Tehran is not as in control of all elements of this crisis as some media and analyst takes would have it: this ‘peacefire’ arguably suits the US more than Iran.
Furthermore, note oil had slid ahead of the latest attacks after the US energy secretary said Hormuz transits are ‘meaningfully’ climbing. Crucially, there is evidence suggesting the US Navy is ushering more oil through Hormuz, with transponders off, than official data on ship movements show. Indeed, both the UAE and Kuwait are now offering crude to Asia again, while Saudi jet fuel supply to Europe is higher than before the Hormuz closure (first discussed here "As Gulf States Plan Bypass Pipelines, US Military Is Quietly Helping Ships Cross Hormuz"). That may not get much fanfare, but it is extremely significant if so.
Of course, oil then climbed after the US strikes on Iran - and a Hormuz reopening date beyond what we already expected (September) was just flagged. Trump had echoed our thinking when talking about Labor Day, September 7, as a possible reopening date, but yesterday Vice-President Vance noted it could take “weeks” or even “months” to get to a deal - but one will “absolutely” happen before the mid-term elections. That means November! Of course, if more oil is getting out of Hormuz, how destructive that extended closure timeline will prove for the global economy is unclear – but the tail risks aren’t eliminated.
Elsewhere in geopolitics, Taiwan’s opposition leader told the US and China not to use her country as ‘pawn’. Recall Bloomberg yesterday claimed a $10 trillion price tag if problems emerge there. How many plan Bs are being put in place on that risk basis?
In geopolitics-adjacent geoeconomics, the EU wants to use African solar power for its own energy future – which will logically require not just up to €100bn in investment there, and Africa not wanting that power for its own economy, but an EU ability to physically protect such installations in a region plagued by Islamist attacks and Russian influence in places. That could therefore cost more than €100bn.
Meanwhile, Germany announced the planned Franco-German fighter jet scheme dead, and Airbus flagged plans for a German-led alliance to replace it. There are also suggestions the UK will be forced to cut its contribution to a proposed UK-Italy-Japan fighter jet and cancel its new Navy destroyers if they don’t further hike taxes, which would be politically damaging. Who could have known that massive rearmament is very expensive and tricky to coordinate?
In related technology issues, Brussels has ordered Meta to open up WhatsApp to rival AI agents, as the White House reined in its new AI-testing unit while Anthropic released the new ‘Mythos-class’ model to the general public ‘with guardrails’. That’s as the Wall Street Journal notes Wall Street is enthusiastically funding AI in any way possible, and Europe’s ASML warned the EU against politically directing chip supplies as part of its AI plans.
In markets, the Korean KOSPI was down 4.5% today after being up 8.2% Tuesday after being down 8.3% on Monday (and 5.5% on Friday).
The US 10-year yield was at 4.53%, not yet at the level requiring a new Iran deal story from Axios.
Wall Street is embracing the crypto it once feared, according to Axios - as Reuters notes, ‘Under the Trump crypto playbook, the family always wins. Investors don’t.’
Now back to the ‘peacefire’.