在导弹互射后,特朗普嘲讽伊朗军队“一团糟”,德黑兰称正“重新审视”与美国的外交关系。
After Heavy Missile Exchange, Trump Mocks Iran's 'Total Mess' Of A Military As Tehran 'Reviews' Diplomacy With US

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/after-heavy-missile-exchange-trump-mocks-irans-total-mess-military-tehran-reviews

随着一系列报复性打击,美国与伊朗之间的军事对抗不断升级。美国以一架阿帕奇直升机被击落为由,对伊朗的防空和监视设施进行了所谓的“防御性”行动。作为回应,伊朗对美国的驻扎国(包括科威特、巴林和约旦)发动了打击,并称其自身基础设施遭受了进一步破坏。 尽管两国均将其行动定性为防御性质,但这种针锋相对的交火实际上已经粉碎了近期的停火尝试。伊朗官员谴责美国的行动不利于外交,并表示谈判目前处于重新评估阶段。与此同时,美国仍在应对“史诗之怒”行动带来的战略后果,而尽管面临海军封锁和日益增长的压力,德黑兰的军事力量依然保持着韧性。 分析人士警告称,局势正变得愈发不稳定。由于双方都试图控制事态升级,一个微小的误判就极有可能引发更大规模的地区冲突。随着外交渠道陷入停滞,能源价格面临上涨风险,达成稳定政治解决方案的前景依然遥远,两国仍深陷于危险的对抗循环之中。

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原文

As part of what the United States is calling its latest 'defensive strikes' after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter in the Hormuz region, American forces overnight into the early Wednesday hours targeted "air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites" - the Pentagon said. Iran confirmed that there were indeed fresh attacks around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, but gave no details on the damage, or info on other strikes potentially conducted elsewhere across the Islamic Republic.

"The operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said. Trump is meanwhile again lashing out at Tehran, claiming its military is now a "complete and total mess" - and yet it keeps responding:

Tehran later claimed attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed 'retaliation' - and given these countries host American forces. This marks merely the second time this week the ceasefire was ignored (or rather, shattered - though the White House is maintaining it's still on) with major tit-for-tat strikes, as each side asserts that it is acting 'defensively'.

Iran has been saying it's going to keep up the pressure on Washington and its Gulf allies through both the 'battlefield and diplomacy' - with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei freshly charging that the US is "undermining" the diplomatic process through "contradictory messages, frequent shifts in its positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the ceasefire."

He indicated that at this point there's not even the "minimum level of conducive conditions" that is "required in order to carry out diplomacy effectively."

Bahrain and Kuwait got hit hardest in these newest strikes, with reports saying the US Fifth Fleet base came under fire:

"The Zionist regime is also damaging this process through its repeated violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon," Baghaei said, adding "any diplomatic process is harmed by the use of force and unlawful actions."

"Diplomacy and the battlefield are not separate matters. Together they serve as instruments for safeguarding Iran’s national interests and security," he stressed in a familiar refrain of late.

He also indicated the question of negotiations will be "reviewed" in light of last night's developments, and further emphasized, "Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority."

But it's also clear Tehran feels it must assert strong red lines immediately and without hesitation if it is to survive this now several months-long military confrontation with Washington. On this, longtime regional war correspondent and analyst Elijah Magnier has some insight as to each side's calculus

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Magnier said it’s a volatile situation with no “stable political exit” as peace is far from being achieved while Lebanon and Gaza remain outside of any final settlement.

“The most dangerous thing is that every side believes they can control the escalation. However, a repeated incident can erode restraint, and if talks collapse completely, this controlled escalation could widen into a much larger conflict,” he said.

History has shown if “one strike crosses the red line” the attacks can spiral out of control, said Magnier.

Indeed in many ways that's how we got here in the first place.

Vital water infrastructure reportedly struck in Iran during this new round of intense but brief escalation:

The White House believed it could control the outcome from day one of Operation Epic Fury, and then perhaps a bit of panic set among US officials in when it was realized the government in Tehran would not so easily fall, and that the military apparatus would become hardened, and its power expanded. 

Reports of another US MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down over Iran:

From there it took many weeks to get the naval armada in place, enough to where a blockade could be enacted against Iran's ports and its crucial oil exports. The White House continues to face several 'bad' and 'worse' options for dealing with the crisis, as energy prices are set to soar this summer.

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