Futs are weaker but well off their overnight lows as the US is set to lag its global peers; according to JPM investors will need to watch to see if there is a beginning of a larger rotation similar to Jan-Feb or perhaps a slight pullback following the US’s multi-week run. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% after the artificial-intelligence trade fueled the S&P 500’s longest winning streak in more than a year, with investors gauging prospects for an end to the war in the Middle East. Nasdaq futures down a fraction after clocking yet more records on Monday (driven by a surge in Software stocks), as traders digest a barrage of AI news overnight while a growing number of traders urge caution on market positioning and the technical setup. Im premarket trading the story remains Tech with HPE / MRVL both up ~25% and AVGO +6.5%, NVDA +1.8%. Industrials, Materials, and Utilities the standout sectors. Technology stocks led gains in Asia overnight and are doing the same in Europe where the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.7%. Overnight macro news was quiet, and broader risk sentiment has also been helped by Brent crude futures falling 1.6% to around $93 a barrel. Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.44%.Oil / Energy prices are declining along with Ags as Metals are bid led by aluminum, copper, and precious. US economic data calendar includes April JOLTS job openings at 10am; Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:30am) and Goolsbee (11pm).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed with Alphabet down 2.7% after raising $80 billion through a package of equity offerings, including a deeply discounted private placement with Berkshire Hathaway and a $40bn ATM ovvering (Nvidia +1.5%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla flat, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -1.6%, Microsoft -2.6%)

• Shares of semiconductor companies are rallying as investors continue to rotate into the sector, seeing strong long-term growth potential related to artificial intelligence.
• Credo Technology Group (CRDO) falls 3% after the communications equipment company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations but weren’t strong enough to extend recent strength.
• Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) plunges 50% after the company discontinued its pociredir program for treatment of sickle cell disease and initiated a strategic review.
• Generac (GNRC) is up 9% after the company signed a global agreement to supply backup power generators to a leading hyperscale data center operator.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rallies 25% after the company gave an outlook for annual sales that topped estimates, citing massive growth in AI-fueled demand for its servers and networking.
• Intuit (INTU) is down 5% after Goldman downgraded its rating on the maker of tax-preparation software to sell, the only negative rating among 32 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 22% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang called the firm the “next trillion dollar company.”
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) gains 7% after the chipmaker says its data center solutions unit generated $302.7m in revenue in calendar year 2025, with about $500m expected for this year.
• NU Holdings (NU) falls 5% after the company announced a CFO transition, hiring Visa Inc.’s Rob Livingston to succeed Guilherme Lago.
• Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) falls 10% after the company said said vormatrigine did not meet its primary endpoint of percent change in monthly seizure frequency in the Phase 2/3 study.

In corporate news, Abivax shares plunged after cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial for an experimental bowel disease drug threw the French biotech’s future into question. Morgan Stanley risks being drawn into a probe over Bolloré’s disposal of an allegedly corrupt €5.7 billion ($6.6 billion) asset.

In AI developments, Arm may achieve its target of $15 billion in sales of its own chips earlier than anticipated, according to its CEO. SK Hynix plans to double its memory chip wafer capacity to help ease the memory chip crunch. HPE delivered a sizable beat and raise after-hours on the back of growing AI-fueled demand for its servers and networks. Alphabet unveiled an $80 billion equity raise to fund AI spending. And Tencent shares surged after a report it’s set to launch WeChat AI agent.  

Traders are juggling unprecedented euphoria around the economic potential of AI and a war that has brought about a historic disruption in oil markets. Uncertainty about how close a deal may be means investors must consider that crude prices could retreat dramatically or scale to the highest levels in years. Downside risks are also growing as US large-cap positioning continued to grind higher last week, led by persistent new risk flows to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, according to Citigroup strategists. “How much more concentration can investors handle” is the question posed by Bloomberg strategists, noting that re-risking has been unusually quick and narrow.

"Triggers that could force an unwind include hawkish Fed repricing, structural rebalancing risks surrounding a prominent SpaceX IPO, or a momentum rotation out of over-allocated Tech into Cyclicals,” notes Andrew Kent at Kyte. At these current levels, the forward three-month return profile for the S&P 500 exhibits “a clear fat left tail, signaling a significantly higher probability of a >5% correction,” Kent adds.

In the latest example of the vast amounts of capital being pumped into AI infrastructure, Alphabet Inc. said it is raising $80 billion through equity offerings. The announcement came hours after Anthropic PBC filed draft paperwork for a possible blockbuster initial public offering.

“We may be approaching the point where optimism around the long-term positive impact of the AI buildout is going to crash against a wall of higher yields, higher inflation and lower growth,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.

The next part of the tech trade to experience FOMO-driven chasing looks to be software stocks. In the past two sessions, theSoftware Sector ETF IGV has experienced the familiar “vol-up/spot-up” pattern as investors have bought call options to chase upside. That’s seen the call skew invert and the volatility spread vs S&P 500 reach extremes again.

With all attention constantly focused on AI rather than macro jobs data, the set-up into US non-farm payrolls data suggests a muted reaction to the reading on Friday. Through the lens of S&P 500 options, Barclays derivatives strategists note the current NFP-related implied move of 55 bps is significantly lower than the past one-year average realized move. 

“US data, such as the ISM manufacturing print we just had, still keeps the Fed/inflation debate alive and limits the scope for a dovish rates repricing, especially if oil remains volatile,” said Alessandro Gabellone, fixed-income analyst at Bank Degroof Petercam. Tuesday’s figures on US job openings will likely add to the series of favorable labor-market data releases for April. High-frequency data suggest total openings inched up, particularly in the second half of the month, according to Bloomberg.

In other assets, commodities are in a “super-squeeze,” rather than “super-cycle” that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC analysts. Bitcoin dipped below $70,000 as Strategy’s rare sale of the token continues to weigh on fragile sentiment.

In hedge fund news, famed short seller Andrew Left faces the possibility of 25 years behind bars after being found guilty of using disingenuous social media posts to manipulate stocks, in a landmark case that threatens to chill a broader trading strategy loathed by corporate executives.

Technology stocks led gains in Europe where the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.7%. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• STMicro shares soared as much as 10% to the highest since 2000, after the chipmaker raised its data center revenue forecast for this year to about $1 billion
• Alzchem shares rose as much as 13% to a record high as the German maker of chemicals used for ammunition and muscle enhancement announces that defense firm CSG has been increasing its stake
• Hiab rallied as much as 7.9%, adding to its 5.6% advance on Monday, as analysts raise their price targets on the Finnish cargo-handling firm, lauding yesterday’s announcement that it’s buying refuse collection vehicle manufacturer Labrie Environmental Group
• Deutsche Post shares rose as much as 3.6% to their highest level in over four years after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded its rating to buy. The broker cites strength in a key metric, weight transported
• Entain shares rose as much as 4.6%, extending Monday’s gains after MGM Resorts confirmed it received a takeover offer from People Inc
• IntegraFin Holdings gained as much as 6.1%, the most since mid-December, after Shore Capital upgrades the investment platform provider to buy from hold in a note, saying it’s “an excellent business, properly undervalued”
• Abivax shares plunged as much as 32%, the most in a decade, after the French biotech company reported cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial for its experimental inflammatory bowel disease drug
• British American Tobacco shares fell as much as 3.8%, extending a seven-day losing streak, as a trading update showed continued downtrading from consumers is hurting margins, overshadowing the firm’s maintained guidance and growth in new, smoke-free categories
• Avolta shares dropped as much as 5.9% to CHF45, after holder Richemont sold its stake in the Basel, Switzerland-based travel retail store operator for CHF45.35 per share
• Paragon Banking Group shares fell as much as 7.6% to the lowest in nearly two months after first-half impairments prove unexpectedly big
• GB Group slumped as much as 17%, the most since April 2025, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company announced additional investments to accelerate growth, which will impact short-term numbers

Asian stocks rebounded from early losses to extend their run of record‑setting gains, lifted by falling crude prices and gains in chipmakers and other technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% in afternoon trading, heading for a record, after being down as much as 1% Tuesday. Tencent Holdings, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were among the top gainers, underscoring investors’ continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related shares. Hong Kong and China led the region’s gains, while Japan fell. Investors eyeing major Chinese technology firms in Hong Kong helped revive the Asia benchmark, following a report of Tencent’s progress in launching an AI agent on WeChat and Meituan’s narrower quarterly losses. A gauge tracking these companies rose 4.7%. Indian information technology stocks also gained, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rebuffed concerns that the software industry is at risk of being disrupted by more advanced AI tools.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower and oil prices eased as President Donald Trump said he is still optimistic the US can reach an interim peace deal with Iran soon, even after the Islamic Republic threatened to suspend talks. AUD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.7182 after Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board member Ian Harper said strong action is needed if inflation expectations become unanchored,USD/JPY ticked up less than 0.1% to 159.73. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1650

In rates, treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.44% supported by a wider rally across European bonds as oil unwinds a portion of Monday’s gains on optimism around the prospects of a US-Iran peace deal flagged by President Donald Trump. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with belly marginally outperforming, richening the 2s5s30s fly by ~1bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.425%, richer by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2.5bp and 4.5bp in the sector. European government bonds outperform with UK and German 10-year borrowing costs falling 5-6 bps each. Labor market in focus for the US session with JOLTS job openings data due, ahead of ADP employment and the May jobs report later this week.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 1.3% near session lows. Precious metals advance, with spot silver adding 2% and gold trading around $4,525. Bitcoin falls below $70,000 for the first time since April.

US economic data calendar includes April JOLTS job openings at 10am; Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:30am) and Goolsbee (11pm).

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday in what would amount to a limited de-escalation of a conflict that has ‌killed thousands of people and inflamed the broader U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. RTRS
• The fighting in Lebanon had become a major sticking point in end-of-war talks as Iran considers the conflict a violation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Trump received briefings in recent weeks that the Israel-Hezbollah conflict was one of the key reasons why Iran remained unwilling to make a deal with the U.S., Trump administration officials said. WSJ
• The Trump administration on Monday proposed a 25 percent tariff on a broad range of Brazilian imports, concluding after a trade investigation that Brazil had engaged in unfair practices that imposed burdens on American businesses. NYT
• The White House will cut tariffs on agricultural equipment, such as combines and harvesters, to 15% from 25% on June 8. A lower 10% duty rate may apply if the equipment contains at least 85% US steel or aluminum. BBG
• Gold has overtaken US government bonds as the world’s top reserve asset following years of relentless buying by central banks and a historic rally that has seen prices nearly double over the past two years. FT
• SK Hynix plans to double its memory chip wafer capacity over the coming half-decade to ease a global shortage of a key AI component. BBG
• Former BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai said the central bank may hold rates steady this month because underlying inflation pressures haven’t strengthened that much. BBG
• The US is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European Nato states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees. FT
• NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday the company has enough supply to accommodate robust growth in central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) as it ‌rides an AI boom. The company, considered a barometer for the AI market's health as its semiconductors are used in virtually every major data center in the world, acknowledged, however, that supply constraints remain a concern. RTRS

Iran War

• US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it's not simple for both sides, but they're getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
• US President Trump said he had a very productive call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and that there will be no troops going to Beirut, while he added that Hezbollah agreed that all shooting will stop.
• US President Trump reportedly lashed out at Israeli PM Netanyahu over Israel's escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call on Monday, according to Axios, citing two US officials and a source briefed on the call.
• Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon, and warned that Iran will confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue.
• A senior Iranian official said a renewed war with US 'inevitable', Arab News reported citing state TV.
• Iran's IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran's IRGC said 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours after obtaining permission from Iran, Nour News reported.
• "A number of vessel owners are saying that they are no longer receiving IRGC threats via the radio, which wasn’t the case a few weeks back. But still the confidence level in crossing is low", Kpler's Bakr posted.
• Lebanon officials said Hezbollah and Israel agreed to the US proposal for mutual cessation of hostilities. Israel will stop strikes on Beirut southern suburbs under the proposed agreement, Press TV reported.
• Israeli airstrikes target sites in southern Lebanon, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Source close to Yemen's Houthis emphasised they will not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone, according to SNN.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside, where the major indices ultimately finished mostly higher amid tech strength and mixed geopolitical updates. ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in real estate, financials and defensives, while sentiment was also not helped by a slew of mostly weaker-than-expected data releases. Nikkei 225 slipped after printing a new all-time high at the open with very few fresh catalysts from Japan, and as the recent mixed geopolitical headlines provide an opportunity to book profits. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed picture with the mainland flat, while the Hong Kong benchmark was led higher by strength in the big tech names, with Meituan underpinned post-earnings, while Tencent, Alibaba, Lenovo, Kuaishou, SMIC and JD were all among the top performers.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama refrained from commenting on FX intervention and current FX levels, while she said volatility in oil markets remain and prepared to take appropriate action. Closely coordinating with the US on Forex, and both sides are closely monitoring markets.
• South Korean Inflation Rate YoY (May) Y/Y 3.1% (Prev. 2.6%).
• South Korean Inflation Rate MoM (May) M/M 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade with broad gains after raised hopes of an imminent US-Iran deal. US President Trump said negotiations with Tehran were continuing and signalled expectations of a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz "over the next week". Furthermore, Trump also claimed Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to stop shooting, which further weighed on energy prices and boosted the global risk tone. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Technology (+2.7%) tops the sector pile, with Basic Resources (+2.2%) following closely behind as metals surge amid worries of a tighter global supply. Energy (-0.7%), Healthcare (-0.6%) and Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.

Top European News

• EU is weighing fiscal flexibility for energy costs, while the proposal would allow countries budgetary leeway to cushion energy costs, according to Bloomberg.
• US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to FT.
• UK Labour leader candidate Andy Burnham said he rules out an early General Election if he is elected to replace PM Starmer, Bloomberg reported citing his spokesperson.
• UK's Ofgem is seeking views on draft guidance to support proportionate supply chain security risk management in the downstream gas and electricity sector.

FX

• G10s are mixed but mostly stronger against the Buck as energy benchmarks pull back alongside more constructive Gulf headlines.
• The Buck trades a touch lower after pressure seen in the early European morning attempted to push the Dollar index to the 99.00 level. Markets are generally more risk-on after headlines overnight were more constructive than those seen on Monday. See 08:20 BST headline for geopolitical specifics. US domestic newsflow has been light. Today sees the release of JOLTS job openings. The figure is expected to be broadly unchanged from the March figure. DXY trades 0.1% lower within a 99.05-9922 range.
• EUR is a touch firmer against the weaker Buck in a reaction you would expect to see in response to the recent geopolitical headlines. The EZ Inflation report held a hawkish skew, with the energy component and Services jumping. The single currency was little moved on the report, given it ultimately plays in favour of a hike in June, which is ultimately fully priced in.
• JPY is incrementally lower vs the USD. Japan saw strong demand at its 10yr auction overnight, where demand rose beyond the 12-month average despite the BoJ slated to hike rates in two weeks. JPY saw modest strength on the results, though it proved fleeting with USD/JPY rangebound given the various fiscal/Terms of Trade headwinds. In a note this morning, ING wrote "The risk of new intervention does look a bit underpriced, considering Japanese authorities have remained rather hawkish with their intervention narrative." Katayama was on the wires overnight, she said: "Closely coordinating with the US on FX."

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are stronger across the board, facilitated by a pullback in energy prices after some positive-leaning geopolitical newsflow. In brief, President Trump suggested that talks with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace, adding that he thinks an agreement will be made with Iran to extend the ceasefire over the next week.
• As for price action, USTs benefit from the lower energy prices this morning, with gains of c. 8 ticks at pixel time; currently holds at the upper end of a 109-22 to 109-30 range (vs Monday’s trough of 109-09+). From a yield perspective, rates at the belly of the curve are underperforming vs short-dated rates, signalling that traders remain uncertain about near-term geopolitical progress. The 10yr (4.43%) now resides back towards recent troughs, and another leg lower could see a test of the low from 12 May at 4.41%. Focus ahead turns to US JOLTS.
• Bunds (+50 ticks) and Gilts (+60 ticks) also extend higher, following the geopolitical risk tone. For the EZ specifically, a hawkish inflation report out of the EZ (Services at 3.5% from 3.00%, and Core Y/Y topped expectations), led to some mild pressure in German paper.
• JGBs (+92 ticks) are outperforming vs peer, boosted by the geopolitical tone and a solid 10yr Japanese auction. Whilst the b/c and avg. yield were not so good, the lowest accepted price fell to 98.01 (prev. 98.86), indicating some solid demand for the paper. The 10yr knee-jerked higher following the sale, before then gradually moving higher as other investors also bought debt. As it stands, the 10yr (2.57%) now resides at levels not seen since 13 May 2026.
• Germany sells EUR 3.857bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.58x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.59% (prev. 2.70%), retention 22.86% (prev. 22.8%).
• UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.63x, average yield 4.975%, tail 0.2bps.
• Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.53x (prev. 3.90x, 12-month avg. 3.35x), average yield 2.649% (prev. 2.540%).

Central Banks

• ECB's Rehn says a June rate move would be an insurance hike and that inflation expectations remain unanchored.
• ECB's Simkus said consumer short-term inflation expectations are similar to 2022 and that it is important to react in a timely manner to inflation.
• Rabobank maintains its forecast for a 25bps ECB rate hike next week; expects the ECB to raise rates by another 25bps, likely in September.
• RBA's Harper said stronger than expected domestic demand and re-emergence of capacity constraints have widened the output gap again, and markets are now anticipating that the bank would have to address this, while he added that persistent inflation is a genuine concern and market measures of inflation have gone up, which is a worry.
• Nikkei reported that the BoJ is continuing to call for a June hike, though the government is opting for a "wait-and-see" approach given the risks of risking inflation and a weaker JPY.
• BoJ summary of meeting with investors: one participant said the need for further tapering of bond purchases is not high; participant said there is no need for further tapering of bond buying. One participant said the BoJ should act nimbly, such as conducting emergency bond-buying operations as needed when the bond market destabilises.

Commodities

• Crude futures are subdued this European morning as the complex takes a breather from yesterday’s surge, with upside capped by constructive comments from US President Trump. To recap, US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that he believes an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next week. That being said, it was reported this morning that Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet; Mehr News reported, citing sources. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said renewed war with the US is 'inevitable', Arab News reported, citing state TV. Elsewhere, Lebanon emerged as a major issue, with Iran warning that continued Israeli actions could impact negotiations.
• WTI and Brent front-month futures trade softer by some 2% and 1.8% respectively, at the time of writing after the benchmarks settled higher by USD 4.80/bbl and USD 3.86/bbl, respectively, on Monday. Benchmarks have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. WTI Jul resides towards the bottom end of a USD 90.15-92.65/bbl range, Brent Aug trades in a USD 90.66-92.85/bbl range. Dutch TTF trades -2.5% within the recent EUR 47-48/MWh range.
• Spot gold is slightly firmer as the USD remains subdued by oil prices, with the yellow metal in a USD 4,463-4,541/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,447-4,546/oz range. Spot silver similarly rebounds but tops yesterday’s high (USD 76.29/oz) to currently trade towards the top end of a USD 74.48-76.93/oz range.
• Base metals are firmer across the board amid the softer USD and softer oil prices, coupled with a firm performance across Chinese markets overnight. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,821.53-13,992.22/t range at the time of writing.
• The IEA’s oil division chief said oil supplies from the US, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela have exceeded expectations, but output from the Americas can only marginally offset supplies lost East of Suez.
• UAE's ADNOC executive said China’s demand is starting to come back, and "teapot" refineries are showing appetite.

Trade/Tariffs

• White House released a Fact Sheet stating President Trump signed a Proclamation adjusting certain metals tariffs to more effectively address national security threats and spur investment. The Proclamation adjusts the tariffs on agricultural equipment, like combines and harvesters, as well as certain other equipment, from 25% to 15%, while it expands the category of industrial equipment subject to a 15% tariff to include mobile industrial equipment, like bulldozers and forklifts, when imported from trade deal countries that are entitled to such treatment. It also encourages foreign companies to use more US steel and aluminium by allowing them to qualify for a 10% duty rate if their capital equipment includes at least 85% US melted and poured or smelted and cast steel or aluminium by weight.
• US Trade Representative said they determined that Brazil has performed unreasonable acts under Section 301 and that the acts are actionable, while the US continues to engage with Brazil to seek a resolution, and the US will hold a hearing about proposed action on June 6th. USTR later proposed to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that are subject to Section 232 national security tariffs.
• European Parliament’s Trade Committee voted in favour of legislation to remove EU duties on several US goods imports.

Geopolitics

• Russia's Kremlin said systematic strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure are being carried out, however reiterated that it is ready to achieve its aims in Ukraine through diplomacy.
• Explosions were reported in Kyiv, and a witness said the city sustained a large-scale air bombardment, while Ukraine's air force said it detected missiles headed towards the Sumy region and Kyiv, as well as UAVs that were headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the south.
• Air raid sirens were activated in Ukraine's Kyiv, while authorities urged residents to seek shelter.
• Ukraine’s military said it has struck Russia’s Ilsky oil refinery (132k-138k BPD).

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6866k, prior 6866k
• 1:50 am: Fed’s Kashkari in Panel Discussion
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
• 11:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CBS Chicago

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I'll be at a Parisian breakfast as you read this presenting our new semi-annual World Outlook, which is called “1999 meets 1990”. The title reflects the interplay of AI-driven optimism and the disruptive effects of the Middle East conflict, which makes it feel like those two years are now coinciding. 

In the outlook, our baseline expectation is that a US-Iran deal is reached this month that allows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, with Brent crude falling back to $86/bbl in Q4. However, if the Strait of Hormuz experiences a prolonged closure, that would push Brent towards $150/bbl, hitting global growth and pushing Europe into recession. But net net, our global GDP forecast has only been trimmed slightly to 3.0% this year, before recovering back to 3.2% in 2027.

For markets, our equity strategists remain constructive, still seeing the S&P 500 at 8000 by year-end. However, our fixed-income strategists expect a further selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields reaching 4.7%, and 10yr bund yields up to 3.2%. In credit, we also see some mild spread widening by year-end, particularly in Europe. And on the FX side, we expect a continued (albeit slower) dollar depreciation, with EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end.

Looking at the last 24 hours, 1990 continued to fight it out with 1999 as higher oil met fresh mega equity issuance and AI euphoria. Brent crude (+4.24%) and 10yr Treasury yields (+1.7bps) climbed yesterday as headlines pointed away from a US-Iran deal though the S&P 500 (+0.26%) still reached a fifth consecutive record high as AI optimism persisted. However, the equity mood has softened overnight, with NASDAQ futures (-0.67%) underperforming those on the S&P (-0.42%) as news that Alphabet is planning a $80bn equity offering, reminding investors of unprecedented scale of the AI spending boom.

Starting with Iran, the biggest market moving story yesterday came as Iran’s Tasnim news reported that negotiators would suspend “talks and the exchange of documents through mediators”, which dashed hopes for an imminent deal. A little later, further escalatory risks came into play, as Iran also threatened to target northern Israel if Israel continued attacks on Lebanon. That was according to Iran’s ISNA news, who cited the country’s Central Military Command. This marked a clear shift from the more hopeful tone of last week. The mood did then improve later in the session as Trump sought to de-escalate the tensions in Lebanon, with the US President claiming that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to “stop shooting” at each other after his calls with their respective leaders. Trump also countered the news out of Iran, claiming talks were continuing “at a rapid pace” and telling ABC News yesterday evening that he thinks an MoU will be completed “over the next week”.

Trump’s intervention helped ease fears that the weekend’s escalation in Lebanon would lead to a broader re-escalation between the US and Iran. Still, uncertainty over the possible US-Iran deal persists, with growing doubts that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. For instance, the Polymarket probability of a return to normal traffic in the Strait this month stands at 22%, down from 26% on Sunday and 36% back on Friday. The resulting increased caution in oil markets saw Brent crude jumping to as high as $97.79bbl following the Tasnim report before settling at $94.98/bbl. When adjusting for the roll in the monthly benchmark from July to August, this marked the biggest daily jump for the front-end contract (+4.24%) in four weeks. Brent is -0.74% lower this morning as I type.

This backdrop of rising oil prices yesterday led investors to price back in the chance of a stagflationary shock. So yields moved higher, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.7bps) reversing a run of 7 consecutive declines to close at 4.45%, though it did retreat from an intra-day higha of 4.516%. In Europe markets closed before the positive comments on Lebanon came through, with yields on 10yr bunds (+6.5bps), OATs (+7.9bps) and BTPs (+8.3bps) all posting larger increases. Pricing of a Fed rate hike by December moved up to a 69% probability, having been at 57% on Friday, while for the ECB 63bps of hikes are now priced by year-end (+11.5bps yesterday).

Whilst oil prices drove most of yesterday’s bond moves, a rise in yields was also supported by another batch of solid data. Most notably in the US, the ISM manufacturing print hit a 4-year high of 54.0 in May (vs. 53.0 expected), which cemented the view of economic resilience there. Meanwhile in the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI was also revised up modestly from the flash print, up two-tenths to 51.6.

For equities, US stocks held onto their risk-on tone yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.26%) and the NASDAQ (+0.42%) both posting an 8th consecutive advance to fresh records. That marks the first time in a year the S&P has achieved 8 consecutive daily gains. And if you look at the moves on a weekly basis, a positive gain this week would be the S&P’s 10th consecutive advance, which is something we haven’t seen since 1985. The Mag-7 (-1.03%) did decline amid outsized losses for Meta (-5.07%) and Tesla (-4.57%), while the Philly semiconductor index rose +1.06%. The latter included a large dispersion among the chipmakers as Nvidia (+6.26%) announced a new chip to enter the PC market. The news also boosted the likes of ARM Holdings (+15.73%) and Micron (+6.64%) but weighed on Intel (-4.67%) and Qualcomm (-8.78%).

In other tech news, Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft IPO filing, which follows the anticipation that OpenAI will also file for an IPO soon. Then shortly after the US close, we heard that Alphabet is set to raise $80bn through a package of equity offerings that includes a $10bn investment from Berkshire Hathaway. So funding of the AI capex boom is becoming an increasingly key topic for markets. The 1999 comparison in our World Outlook seemed quite apt yesterday.

Across the Atlantic it was a more downbeat picture, with the STOXX 600 (-0.76%) seeing a sizeable decline, reflecting the region’s greater exposure to the energy shock and as European markets closed before some of the more constructive headlines came through. Euro STOXX 50 futures (+0.38%) are reversing some of yesterday’s loss overnight.

In Asia we're seeing a mixed picture with the KOSPI (-1.97%) and the Nikkei (-1.53%) the worst performers with both indexes falling from record highs. Additionally, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.33%) is also edging lower. However the Hang Seng (+1.46%) is bucking the regional trend with gains in heavyweight tech shares. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese stocks are a mixed bag with the CSI (+0.78%) trading moderately higher while the Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) is flat. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs are -1.4bps lower trading at 4.44% as we go to print.

Early morning data showed that Korean CPI hit a 26-month high in May, ramping up bets that the Bank of Korea will hike interest rates later this year. CPI rose +3.1% from a year earlier (v/s +2.9% expected), after climbing +2.6% in April.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for May, UK mortgage approvals for April, and the US JOLTS report for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Hammack, the ECB’s Rehn, Vujcic and Sleijpen, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene.