Recent disruptions—such as the COVID-19 pandemic^1,2 and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine^3,4,5—have underscored the vulnerability of long food supply chains, prompting renewed discussions on self-sufficiency⁶. In addition, while advocates of the ‘eat local’ movement focus on reducing diet-related emissions, transport contributes only ~5% of food-systems emissions^7,8.

This raises the question of whether countries can achieve food self-sufficiency. We use Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets (FBS) 2020 production data and the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF’s) Livewell diet⁹ to analyse the discrepancy between domestic food production and dietary guidelines across seven food groups.

Previous studies have assessed caloric self-sufficiency at various administrative levels based on current consumption patterns^10,11. We pursue a more comprehensive approach, focusing on food groups essential for a healthy diet—rather than solely on calories—and analysing both past and future trends in self-sufficiency. Finally, we analyse trade dependencies of countries with low self-sufficiency, emphasizing the critical role of response diversity—the ability of countries to adapt to trade disruptions by diversifying their import sources, as defined by Walker et al.¹²—in building resilient food systems.

Out of 186 countries, 154 can fulfil the requirements for 2 to 5 out of 7 food groups of the Livewell diet through domestic production (Fig. 1). Only Guyana achieves self-sufficiency for all seven food groups, while China and Vietnam attain six. By contrast, six countries, primarily in the Middle East—Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, China Macao Special Administrative Region, Qatar and Yemen—do not achieve the needs of any food group (Fig. 1). More than one-third of all countries achieve self-sufficiency for two or fewer groups; 25 are in Africa, 10 in the Caribbean, and 7 in Europe. Only one in seven countries achieve self-sufficiency in five or more food groups, most within Europe and South America.

Regarding animal agriculture, meat self-sufficiency is relatively high, with 65% of countries (over)achieving their dietary needs, while sub-Saharan Africa faces considerable deficits. African countries also face challenges in dairy production, along with Oceania; 82% and 83%, respectively, are not able to achieve their dairy needs. Less than half achieve self-sufficiency for dairy (44%), but all European countries can reach their dairy requirements independently. Fish and seafood self-sufficiency is particularly low across most regions, only 25% achieving sufficiency, including Russia and countries in the Pacific region. Globally, 60% of countries cannot cover half of their fish needs (Fig. 1).

Approximately one-half of countries achieve self-sufficiency for starchy staples (45%); legumes, nuts and seeds (46%); and fruits (47%), but fewer than one quarter do so for vegetables (24%). Starchy staple production is insufficient in key regions including Western Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the Caribbean and Central America, where only Dominica is self-sufficient. Conversely, South America and the Caribbean perform well in fruit production, while all Northern European countries fail to cover even half of their fruit requirements. Vegetable self-sufficiency is high in the Mediterranean and Central Asia, yet 91% of sub-Saharan African countries fall short. Northern Europe, South America and the Caribbean also struggle with vegetable production, with only Guyana achieving sufficiency in these regions (Fig. 1).

We also examined self-sufficiency within economic unions and the resulting echo patterns observed at the country level. For instance, the Gulf Cooperation Council is self-sufficient in only meat production. Similarly, the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the Caribbean Community are self-sufficient in only two food groups—legumes, nuts and seeds, and starchy staples for the West African Economic and Monetary Union, and fruits and meat for the Caribbean Community. Four economic unions achieve self-sufficiency for five out of seven food groups, but none surpass this. It is worth noting that no union is self-sufficient in vegetables, and only two achieve self-sufficiency for fish and seafood (Fig. 2).

While regional trade enhances self-sufficiency, it also exposes countries to risks if they rely too heavily on a narrow group of trade partners. For example, West Africa’s high dependence on rice imports—70% in some countries—makes the region vulnerable to market shocks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 6 day Ever Given Suez Canal blockage in 2021. These examples underscore the importance of diversifying trade relationships to improve resilience¹².

Countries characterized by low self-sufficiency and high reliance on a single or a few trading partners face increased vulnerability to disruptions. Many countries producing less than half of the vegetables needed domestically, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, rely on a single country for over half of their imports (Supplementary Fig. 3). Similarly, countries in Central America and the Caribbean depend on the United States for starchy staples, while several European and Central Asian countries source most of their legumes, nuts and seeds from a single country. This pattern is especially pronounced in smaller nations, including island states.

Trade between countries with surplus food production and those with shortfalls can notably boost self-sufficiency. Intra-union trade leads to an average improvement in self-sufficiency of 0.27 food groups, with the Republic of Congo, Malaysia, Cambodia, Afghanistan and Malta benefiting most, increasing by three food groups. At a broader, United Nations (UN) world region level, self-sufficiency improves by 1.43 food groups on average, island countries benefitting most.

However, nutrient availability can still be affected by trade dynamics. For instance, the perishable nature of meat and dairy may limit access to essential micronutrients such as calcium and vitamin B₁₂ in regions with low self-sufficiency¹³. High self-sufficiency in fruits, as seen Latin America, can result in reduced vitamin C availability potentially linked to substantial exports.

These findings hold true when using other global dietary guidelines, such as the EAT-Lancet diet (Supplementary Fig. 2). In fact, countries perform worse under this model, with 17 countries achieving no food group requirements and none achieving self-sufficiency in more than five food groups, largely due to higher requirements for legumes, nuts and seeds, where only 16% of countries are self-sufficient when applying EAT-Lancet dietary requirements. The numbers of countries able to meet these requirements through domestic production reduces by 24 in Africa, 12 in the Americas and 8 in Asia; only Oceania maintains comparatively high coverage. Self-sufficiency in starchy staples (52%) and fish and seafood (28%) is slightly higher than according to the Livewell diet, while it is also lower in meat (57%), dairy (36%), fruits (36%) and vegetables (16%). Outside of Europe and Asia only eight countries achieve vegetable self-sufficiency.

Current analyses provide a snapshot of production and self-sufficiency, revealing that many countries fall short of their domestic food needs. This does not necessarily indicate an inability to produce sufficiently; cheaper imports and structural constraints (for example, cropping cycles, infrastructure limitations) may suppress production. However, current production volumes serve as a reliable indicator of a country’s capacity to quickly respond to trade disruptions.

In the medium to long term, reallocating resources and investing in technologies could substantially enhance production capacities. Advancements in agriculture and aquaculture, such as genetic engineering, precision farming, controlled environment agriculture and cellular agriculture, and strategies such as Singapore’s ‘30 by 30’ strategy—to sustainably produce 30% of the country’s nutritional needs by 2030—demonstrate the potential for enhancing domestic food production¹⁴. In analysing the change in self-sufficiency from 2020 to 2032, projections suggest that almost all countries have the potential to improve self-sufficiency, although this varies across different food groups (Supplementary Note 1 and Supplementary Fig. 4).

Projections from 2020 to 2032 show potential for increasing self-sufficiency in animal-source foods, mostly attributed to meat. Countries currently not self-sufficient in meat could close the gap by an average of 12 percentage points. Meat production shows considerable potential for improvement in nine countries, with the Middle East and North Africa expected to reduce the self-sufficiency gap by 28 percentage points, followed by sub-Saharan Africa at 13 percentage points. However, despite this potential, only five countries are projected to achieve full self-sufficiency in dairy production; the overall dairy gap is expected to narrow by just 6 percentage points. Fish and seafood production also shows limited potential for improvement, with the global fish self-sufficiency gap projected to narrow by only 2 percentage points, with only 2 countries reaching full sufficiency. Sub-Saharan Africa could increase fish production by a modest average of 5 percentage points, although other regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see declines in production (Supplementary Fig. 4).

For plant foods, projections indicate strong potential for closing self-sufficiency gaps. For legumes, nuts and seeds, countries not self-sufficient could narrow the gap by an average of 19 percentage points, driven largely by gains in Europe, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Starchy staple production also shows promise, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to close the gap by 15 percentage points. Fruits and vegetables, which—due to lack of data—were not included in the 2032 projections, have shown a 3–4 percentage points increase in self-sufficiency between 2010 and 2020, primarily due to gains in Asia (fruits) and Africa and the Americas (vegetables). (Supplementary Table 2 and Supplementary Fig. 5).

When accounting for future estimated changes in dietary needs, these projections broadly become more conservative in that countries see smaller gains toward achieving self-sufficiency (Supplementary Fig. 6). Although current projections highlight notable limitations in food self-sufficiency across many regions, it is essential to recognize the dynamic potential for future improvements, which may not be fully captured in these production forecasts.

National policymakers increasingly emphasize the importance of consuming domestically produced food, with growing discussions around independence and self-reliance in various economic sectors. These findings underscore that achieving comprehensive nutritional goals requires international cooperation. This holds true for WWF’s Livewell diet as well as the other global dietary guidelines, such as the EAT-Lancet diet. Many countries, particularly in the Caribbean, West Africa and Gulf states, depend heavily on trade to meet their food needs. Although food trade has both human¹⁵ and environmental costs¹⁶, transport contributes relatively little to food system emissions^7,16. Trade plays a crucial role in diversifying food supply and enhancing resilience to market shocks¹⁷. However, an overdependence on a limited number of trade partners leaves countries vulnerable to disruptions, underscoring the importance of building a diversified trade portfolio to maintain high response diversity¹².

As dietary needs rise with population growth, sub-Saharan Africa may struggle to meet demand through own production growth, while countries in Europe are projected to achieve greater self-sufficiency in legumes, nuts and seeds. At the same time, the overproduction of resource-intensive animal-sourced foods in many regions necessitates a systematic shift in consumption and production patterns, supported by public policies that promote sustainable diets.

While current data and projections provide valuable insights into future self-sufficiency, they do not account for potential sectoral shifts driven by policy changes or economic incentives. Countries may alter their production focus in response to future trade policies, technological advances or other changes. Future research should develop dynamic models that better capture these factors and incorporate more granular trade dependencies, as they could markedly reshape the self-sufficiency outlook.