““流动性非常差”:高盛首席运营官警告散户关于私募信贷和“流动性感知””
"It's Really Illiquid": Goldman COO Warns Retail About Private Credit And The "Perception Of Liquidity"

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-really-illiquid-goldman-coo-warns-retail-about-private-credit-and-perception-liquidity

高盛总裁兼首席运营官约翰·沃尔德伦最近在一次活动中警告称,散户投资者可能没有意识到蓬勃发展的1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场的流动性问题。虽然他承认美国经济出人意料的韧性,但他警告说,许多公司没有清楚地向这些投资者传达资金提取的困难——通常每个周期限制在5%左右,而这些投资者现在占市场的20%。 更高的利率和潜在的投资者撤资压力可能会暴露这种流动性错配。沃尔德伦并未预测立即崩盘,但他强调流动性是需要关注的关键领域。他还指出, prolonged 地缘政治紧张局势,特别是对霍尔木兹海峡等石油供应线路的破坏,可能会对经济产生负面影响。尽管目前盈利强劲且消费者信心高涨,但这些因素仍构成潜在风险。

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原文

Speaking at Semafor’s World Economy event in Washington, D.C., President and COO of Goldman Sachs John Waldron warned that some managers have oversold how easy it is to get money out—especially to retail investors, who’ve helped balloon the market into a $1.7 trillion behemoth just as the space faces growing scrutiny and tighter conditions, according to Semafor.

“Not everybody has marketed their product as clearly as, certainly we would like to see with the clarity that this is really not a liquid product. It’s not semi-liquid. It’s really illiquid,” Waldron said.

Those retail investors, I think, have the perception of more liquidity than is the reality.”

That mismatch matters more now. Private credit has been under pressure lately—from higher rates to jittery investors suddenly remembering they might want their cash back.

Semafor writes that Waldron isn’t predicting imminent trouble unless the broader economy cracks.

“This is an economy that has been predicted to be in trouble for a long time and shows extraordinary resilience,” he said.

“I still see that resilience.” He added, “This economy is much stronger than the narrative suggests.”

He said recent earnings don’t show “any real evidence” of serious weakness, and for now, “confidence is still pretty good,” though prolonged geopolitical tensions—like the ongoing conflict involving Iran—could start to erode that. If oil spikes and key routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, “you’re going to start to see demand destruction,” he warned.

The bigger watchpoint: liquidity.

Retail investors now make up roughly a fifth of the U.S. private credit market, drawn in by lower minimums—but not necessarily easy exits. Many of these funds cap withdrawals at around 5% per period.

“In situations where there’s a sense that there’s undercurrents of trouble in private credit, you could have more redemption pressure where people want their money back and their gates are going up because that’s the way the system works,” he concluded.

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