Oil largely held onto a sharp drop from this week’s highs as the US and Iran seek further talks to end a war that has brought the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway to a near-halt.
President Trump told a Fox Business anchor he sees the war “very close to over” and told ABC “you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead.”
The global oil market has been jolted by the conflict, which triggered an unprecedented supply shock, and while week to week shifts in domestic inventory and supply may not be the crucial market-movers they were before the war (and headline roulette), they remain key in seeing how the US energy market is 'coping' with the new demand from overseas... and if there is any domestic demand destruction from soaring gas prices...
API
Crude +6.1mm
Cushing
Gasoline +626k
Distillates -3.36mm
DOE
Crude -913k (+900k exp) - first draw in 8 weeks
Cushing -1.73mm - biggest draw since Jan 3rd
Gasoline -6.33mm - biggest draw since Mar 2023
Distillates -3.12mm
Inventories across the entire oil energy complex saw unexpected drawdowns last week with crude's first decline in stocks since Feb 13. Gasoline stocks plunged by the most since March 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
The SPR saw its biggest drawdown since Dec 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
Crude production actually declined last week... as Refineries trimmed crude processing for the third straight week. With that, intake has been curtailed by a little over half a million barrels a day since the end of March.
Source: Bloomberg
Crude exports jumped over 1 million barrels a day to the highest level since September 2025 as the world continues to draw on US oil as the Iran war disrupts global flows.
That oil export jump pushed total oil and fuel exports to the highest level ever.
Most of the gains came as crude shipments jumped above the key 5 million barrels a day mark to the highest since September 2025, according to data from the US government.
In aggregate it meant the US sent almost 13 million barrels per day overseas last week, when also adding refined fuels.
Source: Bloomberg
WTI Crude prices rallied on the report...
Finally, despite chatter of energy independence and no need for Hormuz flows, the real constraint on Trump is domestic gas and diesel prices (as its a global energy complex), which are looking set to fall from near record-highs as WTI and RBOB prices have eased...
“The broad-based pullback is driven by growing market optimism that diplomacy, not escalation, is now dominating,” said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB AB.
Should escalation risks fade, supply from the Middle East may see a “tiered recovery,” according to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. Some 2 million to 3 million barrels a day were likely to be restored in the first four weeks, followed by additional volumes, analysts including Daniel Hynes said in a note.