比特币距离 ETF“流动性危机”还有 6 个月

比特币距离 ETF“流动性危机”还有 6 个月
Bitcoin Has 6 Months Until ETF "Liquidity Crisis"

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-has-6-months-until-etf-liquidity-crisis

一项分析预测，由于机构投资者通过交易所交易基金（ETF）需求不断增加，比特币可能在六个月内面临“卖方流动性危机”。 Ki Young Ju 是链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的创始人兼首席执行官，其在比特币现货 ETF 上的投资超过 300 亿美元，他警告说，可供出售的比特币数量减少将导致供应量减少，最终导致单位成本急剧上升。单元。出现这种情况是因为 ETF 目前控制着大约 30% 的比特币流通供应量；如果资金继续流入，所产生的供应方压力将导致价格进一步飙升。业内专家表示，尽管目前人们对比特币很感兴趣，但比特币作为一种机构投资选择仍处于早期阶段。鉴于交易所或矿业公司等已知实体已经拥有大量比特币，其中包括美国拥有的 150 万枚比特币，潜在的比特币短缺可能会显着改变市场趋势。因此，当这种情况发生时，由于卖方流动性受限和订单簿流动性不足，导致价格上涨超出传统预测。目前，加密数据跟踪器 Glassnode 表明“hodlers”（即专门持有比特币传入金额的钱包）数量逐渐增长，但这些数字是否会相应放缓还有待观察，特别是在近期创下历史新高的情况下。主要的加密货币平台。

原文

Bitcoin faces a “sell-side liquidity crisis” by September if institutional inflows continue, an industry analyst says.

In a thread on X on March 12, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted a BTC supply watershed “within six months.”

Ki: Bitcoin bears “can’t win” while ETF flows continue

Bitcoin as an institutional investment allocation is only just getting started, industry participants have said, as United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gain momentum.

Now holding nearly $30 billion, they have become the most successful ETF launch in history.

Should the trend continue, however, a new phenomenon could arise where there will not be enough BTC available to meet demand.

“Bears can’t win this game until spot Bitcoin ETF inflow stops,” Ki summarized.

He noted that ETFs alone put away more than 30,000 BTC last week, and with 3 million BTC in exchange and miner wallets, the odds of a supply-induced price shock become clear.

“Last week, spot ETFs saw netflows of +30K BTC. Known entities like exchanges and miners hold around 3M BTC, including 1.5M BTC by US entities,” he continued.

“At this rate, we’ll see a sell-side liquidity crisis within 6 months.”

Given BTC price gains since the ETF launch in January, popular commentator WhalePanda notes, the dollar value of GBTC’s diminished BTC holdings has, in fact, barely declined.

“GBTC being a little bitch again with $494 million outflows. Thanks Barry. They’re now setting below 400k Bitcoin,” he wrote in part of an X post, referring to Barry Silbert, former CEO of Grayscale parent firm, Digital Currency Group.

“The problem is that with the price going up and their massive outflows, their holdings in $ are still same as where we started at.”

1.4 million BTC to go?

When the tipping point from ETF demand comes, Ki forecasts the BTC price impact may be beyond market expectations.

“Once a sell-side liquidity crisis happens, its next cyclical top may exceed our expectations due to limited sell-side liquidity and thin orderbook,” he concluded.

Ki showed an ongoing broad uptrend in BTC held by so-called “accumulation addresses” — wallets with only inbound transactions — with this still needing to double before the “crisis” sets in.

As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation address holdings have recently started cooling off as Bitcoin hits new all-time highs.