Existing US Home Sales Plunged In March, Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/existing-us-home-sales-plunged-march-despite-falling-mortgage-rates

3月份的现有房屋销售额大幅下降，环比下降3.6%，经季节性调整后的年化销售率为398万套——接近2008年金融危机以来的最低水平。此次降幅超出预期，原因是战争带来的地缘政治担忧加剧，抵消了抵押贷款利率略微下降的积极影响。房屋售价中位数同比上涨1.4%，达到40.88万美元，超过了新建房屋价格，尽管库存 historically 低迷。各地区销售额均大幅下降，其中东北部地区降至历史最低水平。因此，美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）大幅下调了2024年现有房屋销售预测至下降4%，并将利率上升作为关键因素。数据表明，房地产市场对冲突爆发后利率上升做出了先发制人的反应。

Affordability-aiding lower mortgage rates battled a sentiment-sapping surge in geopolitical panic in March, with analysts expecting the latter to outweigh the former with a modest 0.7% MoM decline (after January's plunged - weather? - and February's modest rebound).

The analysts under-estimated the fear from war-mongering as existing home sales plunged 3.6% MoM (down bigly from an upwardly revised 2.7% MoM jump in Feb). That is the second biggest drop in existing home sales since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged Existing Home Sale SAAR back below 4 million homes (3.98m to be exact), near the lowest level since Lehman...

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 1.4% from a year earlier in March, to $408,800.

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing Existing (Used) House prices back above New House Prices...

The inventory of previously owned homes edged up to a four-month high but remains historically depressed.

Source: Bloomberg

Contract signings declined across all regions, according to the NAR.

Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest on record in data going back to 1999, while those in the Midwest matched the weakest pace since 2011.

The NAR also slashed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4%, from 14% previously.

“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

It appears home sales front-ran the rise in mortgage rates since the war began.