油气价格在伊朗和以色列袭击油气田后上涨。
Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields

原始链接: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/oil-prices-gas-prices-rise-iran-israel-donald-trump

以色列和伊朗之间的冲突加剧,对全球能源市场造成冲击,油价飙升至四年高点每桶116美元——自2月以来上涨了60%。卡塔尔和伊朗天然气田的袭击加剧了人们对能源供应,特别是液化天然气的长期中断的担忧,卡塔尔能源公司报告称损失严重,需要3-5年才能修复。 欧洲和英国的天然气价格已经翻倍以上,威胁到家庭账单增加。袭击还引发了亚洲、欧洲和美国股市的抛售。人们越来越担心持续的能源冲击,并警告油价可能达到每桶150美元。 局势因升级威胁(包括来自唐纳德·特朗普的威胁)以及海湾地区航运风险增加而进一步复杂化。专家警告可能出现二次通胀效应,并可能逆转此前预期的降息,市场现在预计可能加息。这场冲突的影响超越了经济领域,引发了对地区稳定和船舶安全通航的担忧。

## 伊朗-以色列冲突影响全球市场 伊朗和以色列之间的近期袭击导致油气价格上涨,引发了对更广泛经济影响的担忧。 航空公司已经取消航班或提高价格,专家预测如果冲突升级,将出现重大的消费者问题,包括旅行成本增加和物流价格上涨。 一个主要担忧是有限的石油储存能力;如果储存达到饱和,生产可能需要在几周内停止,并且重启生产很困难。 一些讨论集中在如果停止开采,石油储层可能遭受不可逆转的损害,甚至出现倾倒过剩原油的极端可能性。 卡塔尔作为美国主要空军基地的主办国*以及*伊朗石油生产的合作伙伴,使得局势更加复杂。 一些评论员认为,伊朗的行动旨在迫使谈判,而另一些人则强调了伊朗过去遭受的不公正待遇。 还有人担心更广泛的供应链中断会影响到化肥、塑料和铝等必需品。
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原文

Gas prices jumped to four-year highs and oil prices rose again after an escalation of attacks by Israel and Iran on gasfields heightened fears of prolonged disruption to international energy supplies.

On Thursday, QatarEnergy told Reuters Iran had damaged facilities that produced 17% of the state-owned company’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity and that it would take three to five years to repair them.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 8% to $116 a barrel. Crude prices have soared by 60% since the US-Israeli war on Iran started on 28 February.

European gas prices jumped, with the Dutch wholesale gas price up 24% at €68 a megawatt hour, the highest since the end of December 2022. They have more than doubled since before the war.

UK gas prices have also more than doubled since late February, and are likely to drive up household bills. The month-ahead UK wholesale gas price rose by 23% on Thursday morning to 172p a therm, its highest level since August 2022. They still remain well below the peak of 800p a therm that was momentarily hit in March 2022.

Traders are responding to the escalation in the Middle East, where Tehran stepped up its attacks on energy facilities, causing significant damage to Ras Laffan – the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar – in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gasfield.

Oil price chart

The escalation of the war and its effect on oil and gas prices triggered a sharp sell-off across stock markets. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 3.4%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 2%. European markets followed Asia. The UK’s FTSE 100 was down nearly 3% by early afternoon, while Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC were 2.3% and 2.2% lower respectively. Wall Street also opened lower.

Donald Trump has threatened to “massively blow up” South Pars completely if Iran attacks Qatar again. Israel’s decision to target the Iranian gasfield was a significant escalation of the war.

Ras Laffan in Qatar suffered “extensive damage” after strikes by Iran, QatarEnergy said.

Gas price chart

The energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the attacks on Qatar’s LNG hub had fundamentally altered the global gas market outlook, as initial expectations of a two-month disruption at the site were now likely to be exceeded. Each additional month of disruption removes about 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.

The energy company Shell said the attack on Ras Laffan had caused damage to its Pearl GTL (gas-to-liquids) facility. Shell added that the fire was quickly put out, there were no reported injuries and Pearl was now in a “safe state” after Iran attacked the facility in retaliation for the attack on the South Pars gasfield.

Authorities in Abu Dhabi said it had been forced to shut down operations at its Habshan gas facility and Bab oilfield because of Iranian attacks.

Susannah Streeter, the chief investment strategist at the broker Wealth Club, said: “Fears of a sustained energy shock have resurfaced after the escalation in the Iran war sent oil and gas prices soaring. The prospect of a longer, more drawn-out conflict is in sharp focus, as both sides ratchet up attacks on energy infrastructure.

“Warnings that oil could reach $150 a barrel have resurfaced. Israel’s attack on Iran’s gasfields has prompted retaliatory strikes on facilities in Qatar. Europe in particular is reliant on LNG exports from Qatar, as countries have been weaning themselves off dependence on Russia.”

Map of Gulf region

Streeter added: “The conflict is not only highly damaging for economies in the region, with tourism and business activity hit, but the knock-on effects of higher energy prices will have toxic repercussions worldwide.”

The big European airlines including Lufthansa on Thursday said fares would rise if the surge in fuel prices persisted for months. They urged passengers to book early, as the industry’s fuel hedging strategies start to unwind.

Thomas Pugh, the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM UK, said higher energy prices could cause so-called second-round inflationary effects, leading to higher wage and price setting. He said if energy prices were still this high into the summer, those second-round effects “could realistically push inflation towards 5%. At that point, interest rate hikes become much more likely” from the Bank of England.

Instead of rate cuts, money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rise by July, which would take Bank rate back up to 4%.

Anchored ships were not as safe as thought, said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said the first confirmed strike on an operational gasfield, by Israel, marked a significant shift. “That escalation expands the risk profile, meaning that the prospect of hits against the entire Middle East Gulf energy and logistics system are now significantly raised. That includes export terminals, offshore infrastructure, anchorages, port approaches, military facilities,” he said.

Meade added that there was a huge buildup of risk and not just for vessels transiting through the strait of Hormuz,.

He said anchored ships were not as safe as thought. Some governments – including China, India, Pakistan, Iraq and Malaysia – were in direct contact with Iran to negotiate safe passage. The idea that approval via payments or national affiliation guaranteed safe passage “should be treated with extreme caution”, Meade added.

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