By Michael Every of Rabobank

One of the central beliefs of neoclassical economics is that we are all One. One world market; One global central bank; One base interest rate; with temporary aberrations and interventions, One price. Except, as has been evident for some time, that doesn’t work very well, so increasingly we aren’t One. And that division is perhaps even spreading to something we all rely on: energy.

This Daily has flagged the huge dislocation between the price of oil on a screen and on the ‘street’, now around $50 on some measures. As some point out, there’s also a matching dislocation between the price of it in the West vs in parts of Asia. Allow me to remind readers the central thesis of my 2026 ‘Who has the cards?’ outlook was that this year would see deliberate intervention in upstream commodity supply chains so the instigator would get low prices for them and the other bloc would pay much more. That may now only be being seen in relative terms, but this still matches the dislocations in downstream products on the back of tariffs and broader economic statecraft. It’s hugely significant – and it does not say, “because markets” we are One.

The same lack of unity was also on display in the latest news from the Iran War. Israel killed two Iranian leaders, Larijani and Soleimani, which its intel thinks could seriously undermine regime stability going forwards: don’t only look at headlines saying the former was a ‘moderate’ who could be negotiated with. Arab states are egging the US on to continue its strikes to cripple Tehran so it can never attack anyone again. Europe, with Russia and China, is calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Trump said the US is “not ready to leave Iran yet,” but will in “very near future”, as the US aircraft carrier Ford, whose stay in the region was just extended to May, is to go to port in Crete after a recent fire. However, another report has it that a US operation in the Strait of Hormuz could extend the war with Iran by two months. On that kind of timetable, the economic impact would be vastly larger than anything felt so far.

Meanwhile, after Trump’s appeal for allies to help reopen Hormuz, and no one stepping up, the president was reportedly livid, launching public invective that the US can’t rely on its allies when needed and will proceed with them, also suggesting there’s little point to NATO. Ominously, the same was implied by the more moderate (in terms of US alliances) Senator Graham. Once this war is over, win or lose, there are likely to be serious geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences and realignments - indeed, that looks the deliberate target.

With so much at stake, a haggling process continues. The French foreign minister just stated that Norway and Iceland might join the EU, and half-jokingly, that so could Canada. More transactionally, Finland has suggested the EU could perhaps help Trump now if he backs Ukraine. The UK and France might send ships to Hormuz to police a ceasefire once the war is over, as the Wall Street Journal underlines everything is One in that Russia is sharing satellite imagery and drone tech with Iran (as the latter helps Russia). The Journal also notes Ukraine is emerging as a net security exporter in drone and anti-drone tech, elevating it in global power rankings, as Europe declines. Trump’s meeting with Japan’s PM Takaichi this week will also be dominated by Iran: were she to follow his lead, it would mark a decisive geopolitical break, especially if Europe shows it’s unable (physically) or unwilling (in terms of domestic politics) to follow a US lead when even a pacifist Japan can.

In the background, the US geopolitical flip of Cuba from the anti-American to at least neutral continues apace: the White House is apparently demanding the Cuban president steps down so another Castro, literally, whom they can do business with can return to office. Just to underline the differences in approaches here, Europe, along with some past US admins, has aimed for near normal economic relations with the isolated island. Russia is offering it unspecified support.

In geoeconomics: the first European airline has cancelled flights due to soaring jet fuel prices; Australia’s PM Albanese just stated, “It’s a different world now,” and is reportedly set to announce measures to “shield Australians from the worst of global uncertainty” - which are(?); Britain is warned it faces a “years-long energy shock even if war ends soon”; the EU–US trade pact faces vote this week after months of delay; Sweden became the first member of the EU to sign the US Pax Silica Declaration; and Malaysia the first country to declare its US trade deal 'null and void' after the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling.

Time for a musical interlude, with apologies to U2:

“Is it getting better? Or do you feel the same? Will it make it easier on you now? You got someone to blame.
You say, one price, one life; When it's one need in the night; One price, we get to share it; Leaves you baby if you don't care for it.
Did I disappoint you? Or leave a bad taste in your mouth? You act like you never had stuff; And you want me to go without.
Well, it's too late tonight; To drag the goods out into the light. 
We're one but we're not the same; We get to carry each other, carry each other.

One!

Have you come here for forgiveness? Have you come to raise the dead?
Have you come here to play the near bust? Of private creditors in your head.
Did I ask too much? More than a lot; You gave me nothin' now it's all I got.
We're one but we're not the same; Well, we hurt each other then we do it again.

You say price is a temple, price a higher law; Price is a temple, price the higher law.
You ask me to enter but then you make me crawl; And I can't be holdin' on to what you got.
When all you got is hurt.”