First it was China, now an India exception?
Bloomberg reports another major potential exception Tehran could make for Strait of Hormuz oil transit. "India is in talks with Iran to secure the safe passage of more than 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter," a Thursday morning report indicates.
"Negotiations are still ongoing and are being handled by the ministry of foreign affairs, said the people, who asked not to be named as the conversations are sensitive," Bloomberg continues. "The narrow waterway, through which around a fifth of the world’s crude typically flows, has been effectively closed since the start of the war in the Persian Gulf."
However, Reuters has separately cited an Iranian source to say no such agreement has been made for safe passage of Indian vessels.
India ranks as third among the world's top crude importers, with China at the top. New Delhi gets some 40% of all its global imports from the Mideast and based on transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.
Since the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury began, maritime monitors have noticed that China-owned tankers, or at least ones signaling their China links, appeared to have been given free and safe passage - not coming under Iranian attack. Also, one report this week notes:
Iran has continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardized broader supplies through the critical waterway.
Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, told CNBC on Tuesday.
But now Indian tankers laden with crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas - all stuck in regional waters amid the broader international backlog of ships too afraid to make the passage, especially now that the Iranians are reportedly laying explosive mines in the narrow water lanes - are hoping their own government could get a 'pass' akin to what some Chinese tankers appear to be enjoying.
Such was also the case in the Red Sea, with the past two years of the Houthi war on global shipping, which the US Navy ultimately could not thwart at the time - despite some significant engagements and bombing campaigns: Chinese and Russian vessels were declared by the Iran-linked Houthis to be safe.
Meanwhile, of the jagged, mountainous coastline from which the Iranians can easily fire on the strait:
It remains too early to say whether a similar deal might be unfolding with the Islamic Republic in Hormuz, but one source notes that "The Economic Times, an Indian outlet, reported on Thursday that Iran had allowed two India-flagged tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz after the Indian and Iranian foreign ministers held a telephone conversation to discuss keeping the route open for Indian vessels."
As a reminder the IEA said in a Thursday report, "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."