Yesterday we pointed out that contrary to conventional wisdom of a full Gulf blockade, more ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz...

... with the caveat that most are turning off their transponders not to attract undue attention, whether by Iran or the US.

This morning, Bloomberg confirms that while mainstream Western shipping remains largely suspended through the Strait of Hormuz, recent 24-hour observations reveal a jump in Iran-linked traffic, specifically involving two sanctioned (read China-focused) VLCCs.

There were eight commercial transits on Tuesday and four more were identified early Wednesday, most of which have ties to Iran or have Chinese commercial links, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Two sanctioned Iranian VLCCs, were seen exiting the Persian Gulf for Asia early Wednesday. Their drafts suggest both supertankers are fully laden, and since they saw no pushback from Iran, are headed toward China. As much as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude has been shipped through the strait since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Tankertrackers.com, a company that specializes in the use of satellite imagery to track vessels.

According to Bloomberg, one Iran-affiliated container-ships entered the Persian Gulf on Tuesday and another on Wednesday. In addition, a bulk carrier also entered the Gulf Wednesday signaling ‘China Owner All Chinese.’

This increase in activity comes amid an escalation in hostilities in the region. The cargo ship Mayuree Naree was hit by an unknown projectile, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Another bulk carrier signaling ‘China Owner&Crew’ u-turned away from the strait following the incident, underscoring the heightened security risks.

As we reported previously, widespread electronic warfare tactics, including spoofing and signal jamming, have made real-time monitoring of traffic increasingly difficult. With several vessels opting to deactivate AIS transponders in high-risk areas, data accuracy is expected to lag, leading to an eventual upward revision of historical transit numbers.

Still, despite the occasional successful crossing, the bulk of the industry’s tonnage remains stuck on either side of the strait until maritime security is restored. Traffic through the channel was effectively halted following several attacks on merchant ships as Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes. Missile and drone activity continues to pose a critical risk to all vessels in the vicinity.