This morning's retail sales data is for January (still lagging due to the govt shutdown) and is expected to be a decline (BofA's omniscient analysts see a worse than consensus drop MoM, due in large part to weather disruptions).
The actual print was a decline but slightly better than expected at -0.2% MoM. Despite two months of no increase, sales rose 3.2% YoY in January (increased from December)
Source: Bloomberg
The decline was driven by a decline in sales at gas stations (lower gas prices) and Health Personal Care Stores. Motor Vehicles sales also dropped MoM. Non-store (online) retailers saw sales surge MoM...
Even though December's seasonally-adjusted move was disappointing, it was a record high on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and January saw the usual big post-Xmas hangover plunge...
Source: Bloomberg
A lengthy winter storm that included significant snowfall and ice across the central and eastern US likely impeded shoppers during the weather event. The Arctic blast triggered the most flight cancellations since the pandemic and left more than 1 million homes and businesses without power.
Receipts at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, declined 0.2% in January. Restaurants including Sweetgreen and Chipotle said that sub-freezing temperatures and winter storms hindered sales.
'Real' retail sales (very roughly adjusted by CPI) showed an acceleration in January...
The report showed a 0.3% increase in so-called control-group sales - which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product. The measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations.
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