A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian LPG, the Danuta I, transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday without incident, shortly after a China-linked bulk carrier also exited the world's most critical energy chokepoint, suggesting IRGC forces may, for now, be allowing Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels to pass. That said, the strait remains paralyzed for broader commercial traffic, risking energy shocks across Asia that, if prolonged, could spill over into financial markets.

Bloomberg reports the very large gas carrier, sailing under the flag of Palau, transited the strait in the early hours of Friday morning local time without incident. The ship picked up cargo from within the Persian Gulf, which Bloomberg journalists said was "seen from a draft increase."

"The Strait of Hormuz is currently too risky for legitimate shipowners to cross from a commercial standpoint as well as for safety of crew, which explains the dozens of tankers stuck waiting within the Gulf and unable to exit," Charlie Brown, an advisor to United Against Nuclear Iran, told the financial outlet.

Brown said, "Dark fleet or sanctioned tankers may take a calculated risk to sail through, possibly after communication with Iranian forces in the area."

Late Wednesday, the Chinese-linked bulk carrier Iron Maiden transited the narrow waterway without incident, after reports circulated that Tehran would permit Chinese vessels to transit.

Vessel traffic data through Hormuz has all but collapsed, down 90%, according to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic.

The collapse in vessel traffic through the maritime chokepoint suggests, based on commentary and data we've diligently compiled from top institutional desks and energy experts, that any extended disruption of the waterway is setting the stage for an energy shock in Asia. If prolonged, it could also affect other parts of the world (Europe) and morph into a financial crisis.

Professional subscribers can read much more about the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, and energy markets at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.