2028年民主党总统候选人会是谁?
Who Will Be The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/who-will-be-2028-democratic-presidential-nominee

加州州长加文·纽森的新回忆录《急匆匆的年轻人》记录了他的人生和职业生涯,从艰难的童年到2004年担任旧金山市长时在同性婚姻问题上的大胆立场等关键政治时刻。这本书提供了个人反思,但并未阐述未来计划,尽管纽森的任期有限,并且可能正在考虑2028年竞选总统。 目前,像Polymarket这样的预测市场将纽森视为2028年最有可能的民主党候选人,概率超过25%——明显领先于潜在竞争对手如亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯和卡玛拉·哈里斯。然而,同样的市场目前预测他将输掉与共和党副总统候选人J.D. Vance的普选对决。虽然纽森尚未宣布任何意图,但这本书和当前的民意调查表明,他在即将到来的总统选举周期中是一个关键人物。

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原文

California Governor Gavin Newsom has released a new memoir, "Young Man in a Hurry", in which the Democrat lays out stories from his personal and political life.

From his sometimes turbulent upbringing to his 2004 act in favor of gay marriage, when he allowed over 4,000 same-sex couples to get married at San Francisco City Hall during his time as mayor long before such unions were legalized, the book details some of Newsom's successes and failures, without giving a clear roadmap of what's to come.

Newsom, who is termed out of office and cannot run again in November, has been open in interviews about the possibility of running for president of the United States in 2028, but has maintained the decision would be made "as a family" with his wife and four children.

As Statista's Valentine Fourreau reports, according to data from prediction market platform Polymarket, Gavin Newsom is currently most likely to become the Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election with odds of over 25 percent as of February 23, 2026.

This places him far ahead of all other potential Democratic candidates, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who came second at just under 10 percent, and former VP and once presidential hopeful Kamala Harris in 3rd position.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (4 percent) is in fourth position.

While Gavin Newsom so far appears as the clear favorite to represent the Democrats in the next election, Polymarket odds currently see him losing to VP J.D. Vance, with 17 percent against 22...

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