Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier that the U.S. is "accelerating, not decelerating" Operation Epic Fury, with U.S. and Israeli forces conducting at least 1,000 strikes over five days against high-value IRGC assets and leadership. As those strikes have significantly degraded the IRGC's capabilities on land, at sea, and in the air, the next big question is whether Iran's energy infrastructure will become the conflict's next major focal point, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed and Beijing grows increasingly concerned about disruptions to its cheap Iranian crude imports.

Operation Epic Fury has targeted key IRGC leadership, military support networks, and financial infrastructure, severely degrading core pillars of the regime. The next phase to watch is whether the Trump administration and Israel will move against Iran's critical oil and gas infrastructure, which remains both the regime's economic lifeline and an important source of cheap crude for China.

What comes to mind first is Iran's main crude export terminal in the Persian Gulf, called "Kharg Island." Think of it as Iran's oil jugular.

Reuters reports that about 90% of Iran's crude is exported via Kharg Island, located off the country's southern coast in the northern Persian Gulf, in Bushehr Province, about 34 miles northwest of the port of Bushehr.

The latest from Bloomberg reports that Iran continued loading crude onto tankers at Kharg on Monday, despite U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets countrywide. It remains unclear whether the loading terminal will still be operational through the end of the week, given that the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed and that any shadow tanker carrying Iranian crude through the chokepoint could be targeted by U.S. and allied forces.

One observation is that the Trump administration and Israel may be deliberately preserving operations at the Kharg loading terminal. If military planners had intended to immediately sever the regime's funding pipeline, the terminal likely would have been among the first targets of the operation. This suggests that allied forces may be keeping the facility intact for the country's next leadership.

"Kharg Island handles up to 90% of Iran's oil exports. Is President Trump thinking about seizing it?" Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer asked on X.

Our view is that if the Trump administration intends to push forward with a new government, Kharg Island's oil and gas infrastructure is unlikely to be destroyed. Notably, it has remained untouched in the first five days of the conflict. If it is destroyed, China would be furious.