西方官员声称伊朗剩余导弹储备仅剩几天。
Western Official Claims Iran Has Just 'Days Left' For Depleting Missile Arsenal

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/western-official-claims-iran-has-just-days-left-depleting-missile-arsenal

## 史诗怒火行动:评估转变 持续的冲突“史诗怒火行动”的关键在于消耗战——具体而言,哪一方会先耗尽其导弹和拦截器储备。最初美国对短期战役(几天到五周)的估计已经在延长,一些人认为可能长达八周。 相互矛盾的报告主导了叙事。虽然一些西方官员通过《华尔街日报》等来源声称伊朗的弹道导弹发射正在减少,由于美以打击其库存正在减少,但这一评估受到了谨慎对待。人们担心伊朗正在保留导弹以进行更长时间的战斗。 尽管伊朗的能力可能受到削弱,但其导弹仍在对美国和以色列的基础设施造成损害,甚至穿透了先进的防御系统。伊朗坚称其拥有更新的武器储备。 至关重要的是,所有信息都经过了积极的“信息战”过滤,报告严重依赖来自美国、以色列和盟国政府的匿名来源。普遍的观点认为,关于伊朗弹药迅速耗尽的说法可能过于乐观,考虑到多年的准备和潜在的隐藏库存。

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原文

Among the most crucial open questions in the ongoing Operation Epic Fury - or perhaps the most pressing issue - is which warring side will outlast the other in terms of maintaining missile and interceptor numbers, and for the US side this means enough to achieve the (somewhat ambiguous) military objectives.

Speculation and estimates are flying wildly in international press reports, also with Iran now claiming it has only thus far expended its older and aging stockpile, but stands ready to use its newer, more advanced ballistic projectiles. But amid the fog of war in these opening days of conflict, and competing narratives, there's also concern at the Pentagon over just how long this 'air war' will last.

Source: Reuters

War Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier Wednesday suggested that the campaign could extend to eight weeks. So already the scope is getting extended (and is so as each day passes), after President Trump initially floated a mere likely 'days' or up to "five weeks" of combat operations against Iran in the Persian Gulf region.

Enter The Wall Street Journal with a new Wednesday report just as the Pentagon wrapped up its press briefing...

"The number of Iranian ballistic missile launches is declining and at current rates Tehran has only several more days of firepower from them, according to a Western official," the report says. "Still, the decline might also be because Iran is holding back missiles so its operations can last longer, the official said."

But again, headline consumers might want to take such an assessment with a big grain of salt. Every hot war is accompanied by an information war - a reality for all wars since time immemorial. The major media, from NYT to WSJ to CNN to of course The Washington Post, typically gets its 'scoops' from anonymous Pentagon and US intelligence officials, or else from Mossad and the Israeli government (given the current war is also being waged by Israel).

Source: CSIS

And yet, there can also be little doubt that Iran's missile capabilities are being degraded on at least some level, given the massive 'shock and awe' US-Israeli bombing raids, which is targeting Iranian missile sites among others. WSJ notes this in the following:

The decline is a result of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian launch sites and the facilities that manufacture them, the official said. Even as its ability to fire sophisticated missiles dwindles, Iran can still maintain a drumbeat of attacks with cheaper systems, such as drones, another Western official said.

On Tuesday, the top U.S. commander in the region, Adm. Brad Cooper, said Iran’s ability to target the U.S. and its partners in the Middle East was declining after hundreds of its ballistic missiles, launchers and drones were targeted.

But there's some other key trends worth emphasizing: these hard to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles are in fact unleashing significant damage on the Pentagon's radar and military communications infrastructure in the Gulf region. Many are also getting through Israel's significant anti-air defense systems. The death toll in Israel is at least ten, with dozens wounded, but the IDF has not issued more info on casualties since the weekend.

One prevailing view within the Western defense establishment...

Again, all of this has to be taken in context of a raging info war and the fact that US, Israeli, and allied governments are doing some heavy narrative shaping at this moment, and feeding it to the press.

We can say that the idea of Iran fast running out of ammo, while also possessing whole underground 'missile cities' - seems more like 'wishful thinking' at this moment. Iran has clearly been preparing for this showdown for years, it must also be noted.

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