特朗普暗示支持反伊朗武装起义,作为避免美国地面部队介入的替代方案。
Trump Floats Backing Anti-Tehran Insurgency As Alternative To US Boots On Ground

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-talks-kickstarting-anti-tehran-insurgency-place-us-boots-ground

距离美国-以色列“史诗怒火”行动开始仅四天,关于伊朗潜在地面战争和游击战的讨论正在迅速升温,尽管白宫声称要避免“派兵”,但同时又寻求政权更迭。专家认为,仅靠空袭无法实现这一目标,需要地面部队。 据报道,特朗普总统正在考虑支持伊朗少数民族群体——特别是伊拉克-伊朗边境沿线的库尔德力量——以煽动针对德黑兰的起义。这一策略让人联想到过去的美国干预,可能引发族裔和宗派暴力以及报复性袭击。 该计划可能包括向反政府团体提供武器和训练,甚至可能与包括基地组织或伊朗民族抵抗委员会(MEK)在内的组织结盟,尽管承认缺乏伊朗内部可靠的联系。批评人士警告说,这种做法可能演变成混乱的死刑队和复仇局面,类似于伊拉克所见的动荡。白宫确认已与地区伙伴进行讨论,但尚未做出最终决定。

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原文

It's only day four of the US-Israeli 'Operation Epic Fury' and there's already talks of a ground war and insurgency in Iran.

Of course, the White House is still saying it doesn't plan to send US boots on the ground (though is 'not ruling it out'), while also proclaiming the US wants regime change in Tehran, and the dismantling of the Islamic Republic as a state and system is a formal objective. 

But as the Bush Necons learned in Iraq, you can't have your cake and eat it too. An air war according to even the CIA and top defense officials won't be enough to effect regime change and state dismantling, so a ground operation is needed.

Cue death squads. Illustrative Fallujah fighting, via EPA

This dilemma is precisely what has led President Trump to float a new possible plan, per the Wall Street Journal:

President Trump is open to supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms to dislodge the regime, U.S. officials said, as he continues to mull several options publicly and privately about who should succeed the country’s fallen leader.

Let the etho-sectarian nightmarish hellscape violence begin? Yes, Trump is already speaking in terms of peeling off ethnic minorities in Iran to create an insurgency targeting Tehran.

"Trump spoke Sunday with Kurdish leaders, officials said, and is continuing to engage other local officials who may leverage Tehran’s weakness to make gains," the report continues. "The Kurds have a sizable force along the Iraq-Iran border, and Israel has bombed positions in western Iran, leading to speculation that it is paving a path for a Kurdish advance."

Again, this is recipe for death squads and score-settling, given also the chance that Iranian authorities and loyalist paramilitaries - should they perceive the Kurds to be in rebellion - will then likely retaliate wholescale. 

“President Trump has spoken with many regional partners,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, though without revealing whether any plan has been confirmed. 

"Officials said Trump hasn’t made a final decision on the matter, including whether he would provide arms, training or intelligence support to antiregime groups," WSJ adds..

The report comes after Trump urged the Iranian people to rise up and "take over your government". He went on to claim that "America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force."

But what groups would be willing to work with the US? It already appears clear that the White House lacks understanding of the internal dynamics of Iran, and has woefully underestimated how things would go after killing the Ayatollah. 

There's also historic Sunni minority populations along the southwest border regions of Iran. This would potentially mean the US once again backing Sunni Al Qaeda insurgents, as it did in Syria. Another top contender, probably already involved in the war via the Mossad and CIA, is the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) - based largely outside of Iran.

"Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump has admitted to reporters. "And now we have another group, they may be dead also. Pretty soon we’re not gonna know anybody."

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