马克龙因俄罗斯和中国威胁而推翻法国核政策
Macron Throws Out French Nuclear Policy Over Russia And China Threats

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/macron-throws-out-french-nuclear-policy-over-russia-and-china-threats

法国总统马克龙宣布了法国核 doctrine 的重大转变,预示着转向“前沿威慑”——提高国家的核准备状态,并可能将具备核能力的飞机部署到盟国,包括对乌克兰的潜在且具有挑衅性的考虑。马克龙引用来自俄罗斯和中国的威胁,旨在将法国定位为欧洲安全的领导者,并增强其 perceived 的实力。 此 announcement 紧随俄罗斯情报部门声称西方密谋帮助乌克兰发展核计划,这可能影响了马克龙公开pursue 这些策略的决定。分析人士认为,马克龙政府面临国内政治挑战,可能正试图在 2027 年选举前巩固军事承诺。 克里姆林宫已警告,任何核武器出现在乌克兰都将面临直接的、potentially 核的 response。批评人士认为,这种 escalation 表明对与俄罗斯和平缺乏兴趣,并且愿意冒险引发更广泛的冲突,这与特朗普政府之前 favored 的更为谨慎的 approach 不同。

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原文

President Emmanuel Macron on Monday broke several decades of French nuclear taboos, promising to increase the country's arsenal and positioning France for a lead role in European security.  Macron also called for the deployment of French nuclear capable aircraft to allied nations (which could potentially include Ukraine).  The new policies are some of the most significant changes in French nuclear doctrine since the end of the Cold War.

“Today, a new phase in French deterrence may therefore be taking shape. We are embarking on what I would call forward deterrence,” the French president said. That means increasingly including European countries in France's deterrent - starting with participation in nuclear drills. 

“It will ultimately provide for the circumstantial deployments of elements of our strategic air forces to allied countries," Macron added, referring to the squadrons of nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets.

Macron cites threats from Russian and China as reasons for the decision. His announcement comes only a week after Russian Intelligence claimed they had uncovered a British and French plot to provide Ukraine with relevant European components and equipment that would then be misrepresented to the world as proof of a domestically developed nuclear program. This also allegedly included a plan to give Ukraine at least one actual warhead and/or materials for a dirty bomb.

It may be that there was some truth to this report and now France is simply abandoning clandestine strategies and implementing nuclear plans out in the open.  The Kremlin has warned that any presence of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would result in a direct military response to European suppliers.  They say this could include a nuclear response.

French political analysts note that Macron and his leftist political compatriots may be attempting to lock France into military action before the next presidential elections in 2027, so that new leadership will be unable to reverse course.  In other words, conservatives in France are gaining significant ground due to mass immigration issues and the leftist establishment is hoping to embed military forces in Ukraine before they lose power in government.  

Macron argued to qualify nuclear proliferation in his speech while standing at a podium in front of a nuclear submarine.  The statements came off as empty posturing, but the implications are still broad.

"Whoever wants to be free must be feared. Whoever wants to be feared must be strong...To be free, we have to be feared."

France is, of course, not free.  The government has arrested and jailed numerous citizens in the past few years over online posts that violate the country's leftist "hate speech" laws.  This mostly involves punishing people for speaking out against mass immigration.  This is why Macron's strategy to bolster French military strength is unlikely to gain popular traction - Most young French people have no interest in dying for a government that wants to replace them with third world migrants.

Critics of the NATO handling of Ukraine have predicted that Europe has no intention of pursuing peace with Russia. Rather, they believe that European elites are seeking to trigger a wider war with Russia and drag the US into the middle of it.  The Trump Administration has been reticent rattle sabers over Ukraine and its peace proposals have been consistently thwarted by European leaders. 

Russian forces in the region continue to gain ground and Ukrainian troop strength is dwindling.  It would appear that the Europeans have decided to escalate rather than accept any agreement that would result in ceding territory to Vladimir Putin.    

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