Today’s CoTD from DB's Jim Reid shows the daily price of oil back to 1990. When he published the report, oil (+8.4%) was tracking to be the 38th biggest daily gain over this 36-year period. The graph annotates the clusters where we have seen larger moves.
So even though it’s a big move, to get into the top 20, 10 and 5 it would need to be up +9.6%, +13.6% and +13.9% respectively.
There were huge moves around the GFC and Covid-19 turmoil, whilst the Gulf War in 1990-91 also saw several double-digit gains.
Incidentally, since Jim published his chart of the day, oil has sold off more, and at last check it was up just 5.7% on the day, erasing its kneejerk spike by more than half.
Going forward, Reid says that much will depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
It seems it’s not officially closed but passage through it would be hazardous at the moment with self-imposed restrictions from virtually all that normally travel through it.
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