时间是不同的。
This time is different

原始链接: https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2026/02/this-time-is-different/

这篇短文告诫人们不要对人工智能(AI)过度炒作,并将它与过去许多被过度承诺的技术相提并论——从3D电视和豆豆熊到元宇宙和Quibi。作者指出了一种模式:那些曾经热情推崇过去失败技术的人,现在又宣称AI是*那个*革命性的未来。 引用约翰·腾普尔顿爵士关于相信“这次不一样”的危险的警告,文章认为AI很可能只是众多技术中的*一种*,而不是一个能够改变世界的单一力量。它使用了特里·普拉切特对安克-莫波克的类比,来说明系统如何适应并吸收甚至具有颠覆性的力量,从而防止被完全接管。 最终,这篇文章提倡一种现实的视角,认为驱动AI投资的“赢者通吃”理念是不可持续的,并且缺乏历史先例的支持。

一个黑客新闻的讨论围绕着一篇名为“时间不同了”的文章(原标题“这次不一样”),这是对特里·普拉切特《浮士德·埃里克》的引用。文章可能讨论了技术炒作的周期性,暗示即使像人工智能这样的新创新,最终也会成为众多工具中的一个,而不是一股革命性的力量。 评论者注意到标题的改动,并欣赏了对普拉切特的引用,其中一人强调了书中一句完美概括这一想法的引言——即使是入侵者最终也会被现有系统同化。对话暗示了对人工智能未来统治力过于乐观的预测持怀疑态度。
相关文章

原文

3D TV, AMP, Augmented Reality, Beanie Babies, Blockchain, Cartoon Avatars, Curved TVs, Frogans, Hoverboards, iBeacons, Jetpacks, Metaverse, NFTs, Physical Web, Quantum Computing, Quibi, Small and Safe Nuclear Reactors, Smart Glasses, Stadia, WiMAX.

The problem is, the same dudes (and it was nearly always dudes) who were pumped for all of that bollocks now won't stop wanging on about Artificial Fucking Intelligence.

"It's gonna be the future bro, just trust me!"

"I dunno, man. Seems like you say that about every passing fancy - and they all end up being utterly underwhelming."

"This time is different!"

*sigh*

The investor who says, “This time is different,” when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.

16 rules for investment success - Sir John Templeton

All of the above technologies are still chugging along in some form or other (well, OK, not Quibi). Some are vaguely useful and others are propped up by weirdo cultists. I don't doubt that AI will be a part of the future - but it is obviously just going to be one of many technology which are in use.

No enemies had ever taken Ankh-Morpork. Well technically they had, quite often; the city welcomed free-spending barbarian invaders, but somehow the puzzled raiders found, after a few days, that they didn't own their horses any more, and within a couple of months they were just another minority group with its own graffiti and food shops.

Terry Pratchet's Faust Eric

The ideology of "winner takes all" is unsustainable and not supported by reality.

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