傲慢通常预示着混乱。这闻起来像胜利吗?
"Hubris Generally Precedes Clusterf**k": Does It Smell Like Victory?

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hubris-generally-precedes-clusterfk-does-it-smell-victory

## 美伊紧张局势:单打独斗? 詹姆斯·霍华德·昆斯特勒分析了美国目前在伊朗周边的军事部署,认为一场潜在的对抗正在酝酿——类似于1991年的海湾战争,但缺乏盟友支持。 表面目标是遏制伊朗的核计划,尽管2005年哈梅内伊阿亚图拉发布了一份*法图瓦*,似乎禁止核武器(尽管伊斯兰教义允许欺骗)。 昆斯特勒认为美国在孤军奋战,对欧洲盟友不屑一顾,认为他们专注于内部问题且效率低下。 俄罗斯和中国不太可能进行重大干预;俄罗斯可能受益于伊朗政权更迭,而中国则优先考虑继续进口石油。 尽管美国展示了强大的力量,昆斯特勒告诫不要自负,强调伊朗持续发展弹道导弹和无人机,以及该政权对*圣战*的奉献。 他质疑美国军队的作战能力,并警告说,对美国军舰的一次成功打击可能会彻底改变局势。 最终,结果——战争或协议——仍然不确定,而“交易的艺术”需要的不仅仅是信心。

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原文

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The message seems to be something like the USA isn’t messing around with all those strike forces in the waters around Iran.

The Islamic Republic suddenly looks like Rock-and-Hard-Place-Land.

Everybody and his uncle are trying to figure out the calculus in play, World War Three or a happy ending?

You’re seeing the most significant US military build-up over there in memory.

Smells a little bit like first Gulf War, 1991 — minus all those allies we roped in then.

Mr. Trump (via Marco Rubio) has read Euroland out on this one.

We are in a cold war with those birds, in case you haven’t noticed. The UK, France, Germany & Co.? They are as crazy as the ladies of The View and their millions of Cluster-B followers.

Euroland is yet in thrall to the climate nutters, the farm-and-industry-destroyers, the one-worlders, the Jihad-migrationists, the floundering banksters, and the Klaus Schwab wannabes.

Euroland seeks to throttle free speech throughout Western Civ and meddle in everyone’s elections. Euroland keeps mouthing off about a war with Russia despite having no military mojo and going broke-ass broke faster than you can say Götterdämmerung. Bottom line: the US is going solo on this one.

What is the objective? Ostensibly “a deal” over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Like, just cut it out, will you, please? By the way, did you know that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 saying production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam. But then deception is allowed in Islam under the doctrine of taqiyya, against the threat of attack from hostile forces,

I’m sure you remember Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year when we attacked and supposedly “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research and development bunkers at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan? They got pretty banged-up, you may be sure, and nobody in Iran denied there was something nukey going on in those installations. Is there a will there to rebuild the whole darn infrastructure of uranium enrichment and so forth?

The mullahs are not saying, which means: of course, they intend to continue developing nuclear weapons — and even if that’s a stupid and futile gambit, given recent history, they still have factories churning out plain old long-range ballistic missiles and new drones by the thousands. Let’s face it: the mullahs are hardcore for Jihad and martyrdom. Since being elevated to Supreme Leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has sought relentlessly to transform the traditional Islamic concept of Jihad and establish it as the central pillar of the regime’s ideology.

Are we doing Israel’s bidding there? (Cue: roar of affirmation.) But then, Israel has a point. Iran has been cuckoo for going on forty years. If Israel wasn’t a target of the mullahs’ eternal Shia wrath, there are their other enemies, the Sunni, on the west side of the Persian Gulf (and next door in Iraq). And consider, too, Iran’s obdurate sponsorship of Jihad, wherever possible, both within and outside the Ummah — including especially Western Civ, where low-grade Jihad has been going on for over a decade. . . mass murders, rape gangs, beheadings, trucks through the Christmas markets. . . . [ZH note: This is actually much more a trend of Sunni Islam].

Okay, if Euroland is out, what about the other big dogs, Russia and China.

Will they just stand by and let the US have its wicked way with Iran? Russia sent a corvette-class naval vessel down to the Straits of Hormuz for a joint operation with Iran’s navy, but what does that mean? Probably not much more than occupational therapy. Besides, Mr. Trump is just now promising to bring Russia “out from the cold” of all those onerous economic sanctions. . . to begin the process of normalizing relations. You might doubt that Russia wants to blow that for Iran’s sake.

And, while it is somewhat out of the news due to the Epstein stink-bomb, and the deepness of mid-winter, there is still a war going on over in Ukraine. Which is to say, the Russians have their hands full in their own back-yard and might, perhaps, be hesitant about piling-on in Iran. And, let’s just suppose that the US objective is actually regime change in Iran. Would Russia be indisposed if the mullahs got kicked out of power? I doubt it. Russia has longstanding annoying issues with Islamic factions distributed throughout their adjoining former Soviet republics. Russia does not need Jihad. Russia might actually live more comfortably with Iran under a secular government, tilting a bit more western in temperament.

Just sayin’. . . .

China has more urgent concerns with Iran. China gets around 13-percent of its oil imports from Iran, and it enjoys a three to four percent discount on it. Regime change or war that could damage Iran’s oil terminals would be bad news for China. But then, China is at a long geographic remove from Iran, and China is not used to conducting military adventures so far from home, so don’t expect much assistance there. China’s other option would be to start a kerfuffle over Taiwan to distract and divert the US. We’ll just have to see about that. Uncle Xi Jinping has been busy lately sacking the upper echelons of his own military leadership. Are they even ready for action? Plus, China’s economy is wobbly. Consider also: has the US given China assurances of continued oil imports from Iran if it steers clear of the situation there?

What are we operationally capable of over in Iran with all our warships, fighter jets, and other stuff? I don’t know. . . and neither do you. Looks impressive, but a couple of Sunburn-type missiles landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln could produce a profound instant attitude adjustment. Perhaps President Trump, WarSec Hegseth, and StateSec Rubio have more refined plans for disarming Iran and surgically removing the cuckoo-birds in charge.

Our guys are certainly acting confident.

But then in geopolitics confidence is best friends with hubris.

And hubris generally precedes clusterfuck. The art of the deal is not for sissies.

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