US natural gas futures tumbled to a four-month low early Monday as weather models indicate the Lower 48 is exiting the peak of the Northern Hemisphere winter and entering a much-needed warmup. For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which experienced some of the coldest weather in decades, the next few weeks are expected to feel more like spring.

March contracts fell 7.5% to about $3 per mmBtu, the lowest level since October 17 and a roughly four-month low.

Weather forecasts for the Lower 48 show above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, particularly in the central and southern regions.

NatGas prices have been extremely volatile this winter. Multiple cold blasts sparked freeze-offs and production disruptions across gas infrastructure that sent spot NatGas prices sharply higher. At the same time, tightening power markets, especially across the Mid-Atlantic area, sent power prices soaring.

Readers may recall we identified peak Northern Hemisphere winter in early February, as 30-year average temperature trends point to warmer conditions across the Lower 48.

Now the Trump administration can point to last month’s cold snap as a real-world stress test: fossil fuel generation helped keep much of the eastern U.S. grid from collapsing under peak demand. Read the note, titled "Sleep Tight, America. We Got This": NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast.