With Republicans demanding election integrity, and Democrats demanding ICE reform, it looks like the Department of Homeland Security may shut down again on Friday after Democratic leaders rejected a White House-backed GOP counterproposal to keep the lights on - which may require a short-term stopgap if they can't agree on something by Friday. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said the GOP proposal is “woefully inadequate” and shows the White House “is clearly not open to” several Democratic priorities aimed at tightening oversight of immigration enforcement.

Jeffries said the offer failed to address requirements for judicial warrants, detention center standards, independent investigations and excessive-force rules. Asked whether the administration would support a ban on federal agents wearing masks, Jeffries said, “That’s an open question.”

“They don’t appear to be open to … ensuring that ICE agents are identifiable in a manner consistent with every other law enforcement agency in the country,” Jeffries said, according to Politico. 

According to the Department of Homeland Security, a government shutdown would make the country less secure, affecting TSA, FEMA, ICE, and Border Patrol operations. Acting ICE Director Lyons said that task forces targeting terrorism and transnational crime would be hit hardest. 

According to Polymarket, there's currently a 74% chance of a shutdown by Saturday. 

Jeffries’ comments followed a late Monday joint statement with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), in which the two Democrats criticized the GOP response as lacking both legislative text and meaningful detail.

“The initial GOP response is both incomplete and insufficient in terms of addressing the concerns Americans have about ICE’s lawless conduct,” the leaders said. “Democrats await additional detail and text.”

Punchbowl News asked Jeffries about whether he things Republicans are serious about cutting a deal, to which he replied:

“It’s clear to me that House, Senate Republicans and the White House, they’re all on the run. These people are falling apart. They’re losing election after election. They’ve lost the public. Donald Trump is at historically low approval ratings … And so our view is dramatic reform is necessary with respect to DHS before a funding bill moves forward.”

Thune keeps CR on the table - conditionally

Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to keep negotiations alive while acknowledging the clock is running out. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said Tuesday that negotiations aren't dead, but GOP leadership is contemplating next steps if talks don’t advance quickly.

“There are things I think on probably both sides that are non-negotiables,” Thune said. “But I do think there are a number of things in the range of common ground.”

Thune said Republicans may begin laying procedural groundwork for a short-term stopgap known as a continuing resolution (CR) - framing it as a fallback option, not a foregone conclusion - if negotiations fail to produce an agreement in time. Any shutdown-averting measure would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats, he added.

The existing funding patch for DHS expires Friday. Without action, the department, which employs more than 260,000 people, would face a partial shutdown.

On the Senate floor, Schumer struck a more measured tone than Jeffries, saying Democrats “need to see more from Republicans very soon.”

“What Democrats propose is the definition of common sense,” Schumer said. “We simply want ICE to follow the same standards that most law enforcement agencies across America already follow.”

Key demands, limited overlap

While the GOP counteroffer has not been publicly detailed. But White House allies have indicated that at least one Democratic demand - requiring federal law enforcement officers to obtain judicial warrants before entering private property - is not under consideration.

Other proposals, including mask prohibitions, ID display requirements and restrictions on where ICE agents can operate, would require significant Democratic concessions to gain administration support, according to people close to the White House.

Still, the exchange of offers has given GOP leaders cautious optimism that talks could continue - particularly as senators hope to leave Washington by Thursday for the Munich Security Conference and other overseas delegations.

“It depends on whether we’re making progress or not,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) said Monday. “We’ve got some time. Hopefully people will be working to try and get something done.”

The length of any short-term funding patch, if needed, remains unresolved. GOP appropriators have pushed for at least a two-week extension, though Thune said the duration “will have to be negotiated.”