Peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory could more than quadruple to 367,790 MW by 2032, driven primarily by data centers as well as other large load customers, the grid operator said in a preliminary forecast published Wednesday and noted by Utility Dive.
ERCOT, which serves most of Texas, set its current peak demand record of 85,508 MW in August 2023.
The forecast is based on ERCOT’s economic forecasts as well as information provided by utilities working with medium and large load customers, including data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial and oil and gas processes.
Large-load demand data from utilities was included at the direction of state lawmakers as part of SB 6, which was passed last year, but ERCOT officials told the Public Utility Commission of Texas that it may seek revisions to the forecast.
The grid operator “has concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values for the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis,” Chad Seely, ERCOT senior vice president of regulatory policy, general counsel and chief compliance officer, told the PUCT in comments on the forecast filed Wednesday.
“ERCOT would prefer to consult with Commission Staff to evaluate whether it is appropriate to seek adjustment of the forecast.”
“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a statement. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected future load growth.”
ERCOT’s comments on the forecast noted that the grid operator is currently projecting summer 2026 peak load to range between 90,500 MW and 98,000 MW — significantly more modest than the 112,000 MW forecasted peak demand in the preliminary long-term load forecast.
“We look forward to working with the PUCT on potential adjustments to refine how ERCOT ascertains the most accurate information for load forecasting and ensuring the system reliably and efficiently serves Texans,” Vegas said.
ERCOT staff will discuss the forecast at tomorrow’s PUCT open meeting and at the ERCOT board of directors meeting on April 21.