“不再好先生”:特朗普派威特科夫前往巴基斯坦,斡旋美伊谈判,霍尔木兹海峡交通停滞。
"No More Mr. Nice Guy": Trump Sends Witkoff To Pakistan For U.S.-Iran Talks As Hormuz Traffic Freezes

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-more-mr-nice-guy-trump-sends-witkoff-pakistan-us-iran-talks-hormuz-traffic-freezes

美伊紧张局势升级,严重扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运。伊朗短暂重新开放航道后又迅速关闭,理由是美国海军封锁违反了停火协议,导致油轮交通基本停滞。数艘油轮已调头返回,并有报告称船只遭到袭击。 尽管如此,外交努力仍在进行中。前总统特朗普宣布特别 Envoy Steve Witkoff 将前往巴基斯坦与伊朗代表进行谈判,暗示可能存在“缓和途径”。然而,特朗普同时重申了军事行动的威胁,誓言如果无法达成协议,将以伊朗基础设施为目标。 伊朗官员承认谈判取得“进展”,但坚持如果解除封锁,霍尔木兹海峡的通行才会恢复。市场预测显示,本月底霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常通行的概率较低(28%)。 局势威胁着全球能源市场,并凸显了局势脆弱且结果不确定的现状。

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原文

By Sunday morning, the latest Bloomberg ship tracking data showed that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had largely ground to a halt. There were multiple incidents of tankers U-turning over the last 24 hours. At the same time, a senior Iranian official renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The Hormuz chokepoint (closed once again after briefly opening on Friday morning) comes as the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and US-Iran diplomatic channels appear active.

President Trump told Fox News that special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iranian negotiators, suggesting the Trump team and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are still pursuing a negotiated off-ramp.

Separately, Trump wrote on Truth Social that his representatives "will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations."

Trump also renewed threats made earlier this month to "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if no deal is reached, warning that "they'll come down fast, they'll come down easy."

Confirmation of another round of upcoming US-Iran talks comes one day after Iran shuttered the Hormuz, citing the US Naval blockade that remains in place.

The odds of shipping traffic returning to normal on the Hormuz by the end of the month are currently around 28% on Polymarket. Those odds just hours ago, early Sunday, stood around 18%.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 28% · No 72%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Overnight, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, admitted on national television that there had been "progress" with Washington, but that there were many gaps and some fundamental points remained.

"We are still far from the final discussion," said Ghalibaf, one of Tehran's top negotiators.

Ghalibaf continued, "If America does not lift the blockade, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be limited."

Trump has accused Tehran of getting "a little cute" with its flip-flopping on the strait that was reopened on Friday but abruptly closed on Saturday morning.

Trump's full Truth Social post from earlier:

Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn't nice, was it?

My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it.

They're helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be "the tough guy!"

We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.

NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They'll come down fast, they'll come down easy and, if they don't take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT'S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Latest headlines:

Strait of Hormuz Crisis

  • Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill early Sunday after Iran reversed its decision to reopen the waterway and fired on vessels attempting to pass (BN)

  • Several LNG tankers reversed course en route to the Strait of Hormuz after Iran warned ship captains that the vital channel is once again closed to maritime traffic (BN)

  • Two Indian vessels reported firing and returned to the Persian Gulf (BN)

  • Iran's foreign ministry says US naval blockade is a 'violation' of ceasefire (AFP)

US-Iran Negotiations

  • Trump said his special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday, with talks potentially lasting into Wednesday (BN)

  • Trump says US negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for talks with Iran, resuming negotiations after the Strait of Hormuz standoff escalated (APW) (APW)

  • Iran says 'commitment for commitment' policy in US talks (NS8)

Trump's Threats and Statements

  • Trump renewed threats to 'knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran' if no deal is reached (BN) (AFP)

  • Trump said Iran has committed a 'serious violation' of the ceasefire but a peace deal is still possible, stating 'It will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way' (BN) (JPT)

  • Trump tells Fox US has massive ammunition prepared against Iran (BN)

Regional Impact

  • The standoff threatens to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and undermine expectations of an imminent peace deal (BN)

  • Analysis suggests America's Iran operations may help China edge out US influence in Southeast Asia, with several NATO allies distancing themselves from Washington (SMP)

The previous day's US-Iran wrap:

Other Polymarket Iran Predictions:

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Yes 63% · No 38%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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